393
FXUS62 KTAE 251959
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
359 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Generally summertime pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Forcing for ascent will be
diurnally driven with the sea breeze being a focal point for
initiation. Similar to today, tomorrow will have the Florida
counties as having the best chance of seeing any activity as higher
dew points and instability reside there. Dew points decrease through
the afternoon tomorrow across SE Alabama and SW Georgia as drier air
aloft mixes down to the surface. The HRRR is suggesting an MCS will
move south across Alabama with some residual outflows colliding with
the sea breeze across SE Alabama and the FL Panhandle. There`s low
confidence that`ll happen, but should it come to fruition, these
areas could see some brief strong storms late tomorrow afternoon.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with
overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

PoPs will gradually increase through the short term as the mid level
ridge retreats slightly westward with a bit more troughing and
moisture coming into place. Highs are expected to drop back slightly
into the mid 90s for Thursday with the increase in moisture and
slightly uptick in rain chances. However, heat index values will
remain on the high side over 100 areawide. Lows will remain muggy in
the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Near average rain chances for this time of year are expected through
the long term with 40-50% chances each day. NBM PoPs seem to be
running high lately, so the official forecast decreased them around
10% each day. Upper level ridging may build back into the area
towards the middle and end of the period with highs climbing back
into the upper 90s to around 100 with heat index values in the 105-
110 range, highest across Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.
A brief window exists for showers and possibly some thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening, generally between 19Z and 01Z. Best
chances for impacts would be at TLH and VLD with lower confidence at
ECP. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

West to southwest winds generally less than 15 knots are expected
through the period. Seas will generally be between 1 to 3 feet, with
the 3 foot waves being favored west of Apalachicola. Long period
swells will continue today before dropping to around 4 to 5 seconds
by Wednesday. Nightly chances of showers and storms will be possible
over the waters with the highest chances east of Apalachicola.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Generally west to southwest transport winds around 10 to 15 mph and
high mixing heights will lead to good to excellent dispersions the
next few afternoons. Dispersions will be high across the Alabama and
Georgia zones tomorrow, then across the Georgia zones and near the
Suwannee Valley on Thursday. Minimum RH values will recover over the
next few days to being generally above 40%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024


Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms could lead to
localized flooding concerns where slow moving storms could produce
several inches of rainfall over small areas. However, a widespread
heavy rainfall is not expected. Otherwise, there are currently no
river flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   98  77  96  75 /  50  20  60  20
Panama City   93  80  91  77 /  30  20  50  40
Dothan       100  75  97  74 /  10  10  40  30
Albany       100  74  99  74 /  10   0  30  20
Valdosta      99  75  98  75 /  40  30  50  30
Cross City    96  76  93  75 /  50  50  50  30
Apalachicola  91  79  89  78 /  40  10  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ068.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...DVD