Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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926 FXUS62 KTAE 171853 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 253 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A frontal boundary currently located just inland from the Emerald Coast will continue to lift northward this evening. Shortwave energy aloft will act upon this boundary, within an air mass characterized by GOES Blended Total Precipitable Water of up to 1.9" along the Emerald and Forgotten coasts. Slow eastward storm motions and training near this boundary will lead to locally heavy rainfall, mainly in the FL Panhandle and Western Big Bend, where there is a marginal risk of flash flooding given the current saturated soils. This activity will diminish after sunset with patchy fog possible late tonight across much of the region inland from the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. The fog should dissipate between 9 and 10 AM ET on Wednesday. Wednesday will feature the highest PoPs near the I-10 corridor, and although the flash flood threat should be lower, localized poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out. Lows tonight in the 60s to around 70 and highs on Wednesday in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper level trough begins to lift north and east Wednesday night into Thursday. This will drag a frontal boundary through the forecast area on Thursday with west and northwest flow expected to prevail afterwards. We could see isolated showers along the front on Thursday, but most activity should be fairly sparse, mostly due to the drier mid-level air beginning to work its way into the region. Expect temperatures to climb back to near 90 on Thursday, especially across our Florida counties. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper level ridge is likely to build across the region on Friday and into the upcoming weekend. This will usher in very dry mid and upper level air, largely keeping conditions quiet. The quiet conditions could last into early next week depending on how fast moisture returns back into the forecast area. Temperatures will be in the low 90s with the dry and sunny conditions. Looking further into next week, concerns will then turn to the tropics. Guidance has begun to jump on to the idea of potential tropical development next week. However, it should be noted that any development in this scenario next week would likely be slow, and if anything does develop any potential paths or intensity are very uncertain at this time. Folks should continue to monitor conditions over the next 7 to 14 days, but caution should be taken into focusing on any particular model run or outcome as things will likely change over the next week or two. At this time, it can`t hurt to check in on your tropical plan and prep kit. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A warm front lifts slowly northward across the terminals this evening. This will promote an increase in low clouds and fog by late tonight, with the highest confidence in restrictions developing at DHN and VLD, with IFR and LIFR indicated in the TAFs, respectively on Wednesday morning; This could go lower given there is uncertainty. Confidence lower in restrictions at ABY, ECP and TLH, but cannot be ruled out; for now, have a TEMPO group with MVFR at ABY, and kept ECP and TLH VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Light and variable winds anticipated through much of the week with rain chances decreasing after Wednesday. East and northeasterly flow is reestablished by the weekend and this could lead to cautionary conditions and higher seas, especially during the overnight hours. Elevated northeast flow likely continues into early next week with possible advisory level conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Chances of wetting rains on Wednesday highest near the I-10 corridor, with dry weather returning Thursday. The main fire weather concern will be pockets of low dispersion on Wednesday in Southeast AL, the FL Panhandle, and west of the Flint River in GA. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Dry conditions are likely after today with little to rain expected from Thursday to early next week. No hydrological concerns are anticipated. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 87 70 89 / 10 50 0 10 Panama City 72 86 73 88 / 30 30 0 0 Dothan 68 87 68 88 / 10 20 0 0 Albany 67 87 68 87 / 10 20 0 0 Valdosta 69 86 70 88 / 10 50 0 10 Cross City 70 89 72 89 / 10 30 0 20 Apalachicola 73 84 73 86 / 20 30 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...LF MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...Dobbs