Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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320 FXUS62 KTAE 110634 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 234 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A slightly drier airmass behind a weakening frontal boundary will make its way into the area today. This is expected to limit afternoon thunderstorm chances to mainly the Florida big bend for this afternoon, closer to the deeper moisture. Even there, coverage is expected to be mainly isolated to scattered. Highs are expected to range from around 90 across the northern counties to the mid 90s across the Florida big bend. Overnight lows are expected to range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A broad shortwave trough approaches the region from the west on Wednesday but as it nears the area, it will generally weaken and slow as upstream to the northwest, an upper level ridge amplifies. At the surface, light northerly flow will be in place which should keep the better moisture and seabreeze to our Florida counties, but with relatively light low-level steering currents and the presence of the upper trough, we should be able to squeeze out a few showers and storms, especially across the southeast Big Bend where the better low-level moisture will be. Similar conditions are anticipated as well on Thursday but with the ridge beginning to move closer to the forecast area, and the presence of drier mid-level air working in from the north, it`s possible we`ll see a reduction of rain chances for Thursday afternoon with the best chances again being confined to the southeast Big Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Through at least the beginning of the long term period, on Friday and Saturday, forecasts have continued to trend drier over the last few days. Most of this has to due with an upper level ridge developing across the deep south. This ridge should keep the deep tropical moisture situated well to the south of the area as dry northerly flow in the low and mid levels develops. This pattern potentially continues into Sunday but by the beginning of next week, ensembles are suggesting the possibility of the ridge transitioning to the east for a few days as the deep tropical moisture across the southern Gulf attempts to advect northwards again. Where this axis of moisture advects north is still uncertain, but ensemble means suggest much of this deep tropical moisture moving northwards across the central and western Gulf away from our forecast area, but it`s too early to determine if that will be the case. With the reduction of rain chances for the upcoming weekend, compared to earlier forecasts from last weekend, temperatures will now likely be much hotter and in the upper 90s until potentially better moisture early next week allows temperatures to return back into the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with light winds. There is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon around TLH, but the chance appears too low to include in the TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A front will struggle to get far into the Gulf this afternoon and then will likely dissipate on Wednesday. East to southeast breezes will develop on Thursday and slowly increase through Saturday, as a broad area of low pressure carves out over the southern or southwest Gulf. It`s possible cautionary or advisory level conditions develop over the weekend, but a lot of that will depend on how strong the pressure gradient is as this low moves into the Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Some drier air is expected today with thunderstorm chances confined mainly to the Florida big bend. Overall, there are minimal fire weather concerns expected for the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Through Saturday, concerns will be confined to short-lived runoff issues beneath summer thunderstorms, due to intense instantaneous rainfall rates, but widespread rainfall amounts will be low. Next Sunday and Monday, there is potential for a swath of heavy, flood-producing rain to spread northward off the Gulf, affecting somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast. The heavy rain is most likely to focus somewhere west of the Florida Panhandle, but there is a vocal minority of guidance members painting impressive rainfall amounts over our Florida counties. In other words, there is a low chance for significant rainfall amounts well in excess of flash flood guidance starting as soon as Sunday, but this will largely depend on where the axis of deep tropical moisture sets up. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 73 95 74 / 20 10 40 20 Panama City 92 75 93 75 / 10 10 30 20 Dothan 90 68 92 71 / 0 0 20 10 Albany 90 69 94 72 / 0 0 20 10 Valdosta 92 72 94 73 / 10 10 50 30 Cross City 94 73 91 71 / 40 30 60 50 Apalachicola 89 77 89 77 / 30 10 30 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Haner/Dobbs