187
FXUS62 KTAE 022320
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
720 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday will likely have slightly less shower and thunderstorm
coverage compared to Sunday, as any perturbations in the mid and
upper levels look to be far enough removed from the region, that
upper level forcing for ascent will be minimal. This means that most
storms will develop off of the more typical summer time diurnally-
driven sea breeze circulation. Showers and thunderstorms offshore in
the early morning hours Monday will eventually dissipate before
enough diurnal heating allows for the sea breeze circulation to
switch from the nocturnal land-breeze circulation, and develop
showers and thunderstorms just inland of coastal areas. These storms
will likely ride the sea breeze inland through the afternoon and
evening before dissipating just after sunset. PWATs will generally
be on the threshold (1.4-1.5 inches) for storms to develop on
Monday; however, enough dry air through the mid levels will lead to
DCAPE values ranging from 800-1000 J/Kg. This combined with an
unstable airmass with CAPE values around 1000-2000 J/Kg will allow
for some storms to produce strong gusty winds from thunderstorm
downbursts.

Highs Monday look to climb into the low 90s, with lows starting out
in the upper 60s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Mid-level ridging looks to remain in place across the Eastern
Seaboard limiting the spatial extent of convective activity. Given
any diurnally-forced storm that gets strong enough to push through mid-
level dry air, strong downburst winds could be possible.
Otherwise, expect most shower/storm activity to be along the sea
breeze.

Expect overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to low 70s with
daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

An area of low pressure across the northern Plains looks move
towards the Mid-Atlantic states throughout the long term. A
shortwave moving ahead of the associated upper-level trough, looks
to send a PV streamer south across the southeast US, before
establishing NW flow behind it. PV streamers in this environment
generally come along with MCS`s. We`ll have to see how this
evolves, but there is the potential for one late Wednesday into
Thursday morning.

Looking at this weekend and beyond, with a synoptic pattern
change where we have a ridge to the west and a trough to our
northeast, we`ll be in the firing line for more MCS`s. The so-
called "ring of fire" could send several MCS`s our way next week.
Stay tuned, and come back for updates on how the large-scale
evolves over the next week.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 90s with overnight lows
generally in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Storms are currently ongoing near KDHN so opted to keep
VCTS in the TAF through 02z. All sites should remain VFR through the
overnight with the exceptions being KDHN and perhaps KABY. Some
uncertainty has arisen given ceilings, so opted to include MVFR CIG
TEMPOs for both sites from 09-13z. KECP, KTLH, and perhaps KVLD will
see isolated showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as 18z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Generally light southeasterly winds are expected through mid- week
as high pressure sets up over the western Atlantic. Winds will
become more southwesterly to westerly late in the week as a cold
front approaches the area. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet for
the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Outside of low dispersions, there are no fire weather concerns
across the region on Monday. Dispersions are forecast to be low,
primarily because winds will remain rather light and variable
(around 5 mph) out of the south on Monday. Although mixing heights
will generally climb to around 5000 ft, these light winds are
keeping dispersions relatively low. Minimum RH values will only fall
into the upper 40s to low 50s. Showers and thunderstorms look
possible again for coastal and slightly interior locations as the
sea breeze will initiate storms in the early afternoon, and is
expected to surge inland throughout the evening. These storms and
the sea breeze may lead to sudden and abrupt wind shifts along with
the threat of lightning. Outside of these concerns, there are no
other fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Diurnal pop-up thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding
concerns where slow moving storms could produce several inches of
rainfall. Otherwise, there are currently no river flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  68  90  70 /  60  30  70  20
Panama City   85  72  87  72 /  50  30  50  10
Dothan        85  68  88  69 /  60  70  50  10
Albany        87  67  89  70 /  60  90  40  10
Valdosta      88  68  90  70 /  40  20  50  20
Cross City    89  67  90  68 /  40  20  70  30
Apalachicola  84  73  85  74 /  50  30  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Oliver