587
FXUS62 KTAE 270528
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
128 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 1043 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Late this evening, we are in a convective lull, following
dissipation of our daytime convection.

Through Thursday, we will be watching convection blossom to the
south of a front that will be sagging southward through MS, AL,
and GA. There has already been new development this evening over
central MS along the front and near a mid-level trough axis. As
the mid-level trough axis moves east overnight, further convective
development is expected toward sunrise over our Panhandle and
Wiregrass counties, as well as over the Gulf waters. In an air
mass marked by moderate to locally strong instability, as well as
15-20 knots of westerly flow at 500 mb, loose clusters of storms
will further blossom and move east across the landscape during the
day on Thursday, bringing locally gusty convective wind gusts,
torrential downpours, and frequent lightning. The presence of
clouds and pockets of rain-cooled air will hold inland highs down
in the 90-95 degree range, though dewpoints mostly in the mid 70s
will amount to instant sweat when you walk outside.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Troughing aloft leading up to the weekend
will allow a stationary front just north of our CWA border to slide
south, cooling temperatures into the low to mid 90s across the area
Friday. Heat indices will see a brief decline into the low to mid
100s, with some heat advisories appearing possible. Additionally,
some greater shower coverage tomorrow evening may be possible as
this frontal feature moves through the area.

On Saturday, ridging will begin to build into the area allowing
temperatures to soar back into the upper 90s and perhaps the low
100s locally through Monday. Robust moisture will remain in place,
resulting in heat indices reaching into the 109-115 range across our
FL counties and southernmost SE AL and SW GA counties. Heat
advisories appear likely once again this weekend. Thunderstorms are
also possible, though areal coverage may be less as high pressure
takes over resulting in more localized threats. On Tuesday,
temperatures may cool somewhat as a frontal feature approaches the
area once again.

Low temperatures each night through the period will generally stay
within the mid to upper 70s offering very little cooling from the
afternoon heat and mugginess. Make sure to stay hydrated and cool
through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR conditions are largely expected the next 6 hours or so at all
terminals. However, some patchy fog is possible near TLH and VLD,
bringing possible IFR/LIFR cigs and/or MVFR vsbys. Additionally,
TSRA will begin developing near ECP by 11z, then developing
further and spreading northeastward across all terminals between
13-17z. MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible in the storms. TSRA will
begin exiting around 20-23z, with VFR conditions resuming
thereafter. There`s some possibility that TSRA will redevelop near
ECP toward the end of the TAF period, but confidence is too low
for inclusion in this forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1043 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For most of the evening, Buoy 42036 has been observing west
breezes of 10-14 knots, along with 2-3 foot seas at 4-5 seconds.
Little change is expected until winds and seas start to decrease
starting late Friday. Thursday will feature an increase in showers
and thunderstorms.

From CWF synopsis...A front will make slow southward progress
through Alabama and Georgia through Friday morning, before
retreating back north and dissipating late Friday. To the south of
the front, moderate southwest breezes will prevail over the
waters. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Thursday
as the front makes its closest approach. A subtropical high
pressure ridge axis will build in across the eastern and northeast
Gulf from Saturday through next Monday, bringing a further
decrease in winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Moist and humid conditions will continue through the
next couple days with above normal chances of mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. Relative humidity values will be well above
critical thresholds. Transport winds will be occasionally strong
out of the southwest and this will lead to potentially high
dispersions, especially on Friday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

There are no flooding concerns at this time outside of
localized nuance flooding caused by slow-moving storms each
afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  76  92  75 /  50  20  60  10
Panama City   88  78  88  79 /  60  50  80  20
Dothan        91  74  91  74 /  60  30  60  20
Albany        93  74  93  74 /  60  30  60  30
Valdosta      94  75  94  75 /  50  20  50  30
Cross City    92  76  93  76 /  40  20  80  20
Apalachicola  88  79  88  79 /  40  40  80  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     FLZ112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Worster