Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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507 FXUS62 KTAE 221044 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 644 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Overnight radar shows the circulation of AL92 has moved onshore the SE GA coast with a NW track. Being on the left side of this system keeps us in prevailing north flow and consequently dry for the most part. The only exceptions are along the I-75 corridor down the Eastern FL Big Bend via wrap-around moisture and weak seabreeze convergence. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible. Rain chances dwindle tonight, though showers appear to linger over the Suwannee Valley. A stout mid/upper ridge across the Eastern US yields hot conditions characterized by widespread 90s for highs and peak heat indices up to about 103 degrees. Expect even hotter weather on Saturday (see short-term section for more details). Tonight`s lows are slated to be a couple degrees warmer than this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected through the short term period with mid level ridging extending over our area from the west. Sunday looks to be the warmest day of the week with the ridging at its strongest before retreating just a bit on Monday. Highs on Sunday are forecast in the mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to near 100 inland. Highs on Monday are forecast in the mid to upper 90s with a few spots still likely reaching 100, however rain chances begin to increase Monday as well. Heat indices both days are forecast in the 102-113 degree range, with heat advisory conditions (>= 108F) possible particularly across Florida. Lows will also remain quite warm in the mid to upper 70s overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Troughing is expected across the eastern CONUS for most of the long term period with deep layer tropical moisture remaining across the area. This will provide a transition to a more unsettled weather pattern with daily showers and thunderstorms expected. A couple of fronts are forecast to sag southward through the Southeast US but should stall out to the north. A few shortwaves may rotate across the region within the northwesterly flow aloft and could periodically increase shower and thunderstorm chances. While still quite warm, highs are forecast to return to the mid 90s for most of the long term period with lows in the mid 70s. Despite the slightly lower high temps, heat advisory conditions may still be possible due to a slight increase in moisture across the Florida counties. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Mostly SKC and lgt/calm winds persist into mid-morning outside of a mid-level cloud deck south of TLH and pockets of MVFR status near VLD. Thereafter, fair-wx Cu field develops with northerly winds around 5 kts. The aftn seabreeze induces a SW wind at ECP/TLH while showers have the best potential to affect VLD thru this evening. Thunder is also possible at that site where PROB30s are maintained with MVFR vsbys. Showers may be invof of TLH/ABY, though chances are notably lower. Overall, VFR conds prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Nightly chances of showers and storms are possible over the waters primarily east of the mouth of the Apalachicola river. Calming winds at around 5-10 knots will veer around from the northeast to the southeast this weekend, then out of the west to southwest next week. Seas will also begin to subside with the decrease in winds to 2 to 3 feet this weekend, and into next week. However, long-period swells will continue through the period as another disturbance develops in the Bay of Campeche this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible along the I-75 corridor down to the Eastern FL Big Bend today. Otherwise, we are looking at a dry forecast with high temperatures in the mid 90s away from the immediate coast. Light northerly winds prevail nearly areawide, but an afternoon seabreeze induces a south to SW wind from the coast towards I-10. Sunday is expected to be quite hot as the forecast calls for inland upper 90s to around 100 degrees with at or near advisory level heat indices in the 102-110 range. Highest values are over the FL counties. Isolated convection is possible across the interstate corridors east of the Apalachicola/Flint River. High afternoon dispersions are forecast in response to increasing transport winds out of the west. Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms are on tap for the region Monday in response to an increase in moisture and a front sagging from north to south. High afternoon dispersions are also expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Moisture will start to gradually increase across the region the next several days (especially across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend). This will initially be kicked off by a westward propagating tropical disturbance that is currently 100 miles off the coast of Jacksonville Florida. While recent model guidance does not have this disturbance pushing as far west towards the tri-state area, moisture is still expected to increase gradually through the weekend and into next week as an upper level trough and associated frontal system pulls moisture northward from the Gulf and western Caribbean into the region. This will generally bring the possibility for some locally heavy rainfall and a slightly more active weather pattern for the region next week. Fortunately there are no flooding concerns at this time given the recent dry conditions. Overall, widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches is expected over the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 97 73 99 77 / 10 10 30 10 Panama City 91 77 93 79 / 0 0 10 10 Dothan 96 72 99 76 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 96 72 99 76 / 10 10 10 0 Valdosta 95 75 98 76 / 40 40 40 10 Cross City 94 74 95 76 / 30 20 50 10 Apalachicola 89 78 91 80 / 10 0 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...IG3 SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...Bunker