742
FXUS62 KTAE 211401
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1001 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Model soundings show quite an inverted-v/caret profile with
mixing up to 800 hPa today. Lowered dew points to better reflect
the average of the mixed layer dew point. Otherwise, no changes.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Another beautiful day on tap for the region as high pressure remains
overhead. Dry and warm conditions are expected with light
northeasterly to easterly winds under mostly sunny skies. A bit of
patchy fog will be possible across portions of the southeastern FL
Big Bend and south central Georgia around sunrise. Highs today are
forecast in the mid 80s to low 90s with lows tonight in the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Surface high pressure and an upper level ridge will continue to keep
conditions dry and warm for the latter part of the weekend and early
next week. Light and variable winds are expected but by Monday a
slightly stronger easterly component will begin to develop.
Temperatures will remain well above normal and in the low to near
mid 90s in some spots.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The pattern next week still remains highly uncertain, especially
with regards to any tropical weather. Regardless of that potential
development, much of next week is at least likely to remain warm and
dry through at least Wednesday or Thursday.

By Thursday, guidance begins to diverge significantly in regards to
the upper level pattern over the central and southeast US states,
which could have a large impact what happens with any potential
development in the Caribbean next week. Some members show the upper
level ridge, currently over our region this weekend, moving out very
slowly. This would cause anything lifting out of the Caribbean to
move very slowly north and possibly into the southwestern Gulf
before eventually lifting north sometime next weekend. Other
solutions break down the upper level ridge as a stronger upper level
trough develops over the central US states. This would allow
whatever develops in the Caribbean, if it develops, to move north
more quickly. At this point there are too many variables in the long
term forecast to place much stock in any particular solution, but
folks across the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the latest
in regards to any development. IF we do see any potential impacts
from whatever develops in the Caribbean, it wouldn`t be until
late next week and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Patchy MVFR fog will be possible across the southeast FL Big Bend
and south central GA for another hour or two. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Generally light to moderate east-northeasterly winds will prevail
through the middle of next week with low seas generally around 1
to 2 feet, increasing to 3 to 4 feet by midweek as easterlies
become more established. Rain chances begin to slowly increase
once again over our offshore waters around Tuesday to Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Dry conditions and relatively light winds are expected for the next
couple of days with high pressure over the area. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Dry conditions are expected to continue this weekend through
midweek with no hydrological concerns at the moment. Currently, the
CPC has above normal probabilities for precipitation for our area in
their extended (8-10 day) forecast likely due to anticipated
development of a tropical disturbance. As of now, it is too early to
discern any hydrological impacts regarding our area given high
uncertainty.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   90  73  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        91  70  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        90  68  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      90  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    90  68  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  86  75  87  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Worster