087
FXUS62 KTAE 260905
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
505 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE LATER THIS EVENING...

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 501 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Hurricane Helene is forecast to make landfall along the Florida Big
Bend this evening as a Major Category 4 Hurricane. Preparations
should be rushed to completion. Conditions should begin to improve
during the day on Friday with calmer weather conditions expected for
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 501 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Hurricane Helene is currently (as of 5am EDT) located in the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and its most outer rainbands are
already approaching the Big Bend Coast. Showers with heavy
rainfall will be increasing in coverage through the day and the
winds will be increasing later this morning. Expect the winds and
rains to be increasing in intensity through the day. Helene is
expected to continue intensifying while also expanding the size of
its wind field. It is likely that Helene will make landfall along
the Florida Big Bend coast this evening as a powerful Major
Hurricane. As of the 5 AM EDT Advisory, Hurricane Helene`s
tropical storm force winds extends outwards of 345 miles from the
center. The radius for 34kt (Tropical Storm Force) wind speeds
near after landfall extends 310 miles to the northeast and 310
miles to the southeast. This is an incredibly large storm which
will cause impacts to be very widespread and well away from the
center. We expect Hurricane Helene to move out of the region by
mid-morning Friday and a return to typical late September
conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s on Friday
with a breezy 15-20 mph southwest wind with gusts up to 25 mph
and sunny skies.

See the latest NHC discussion for storm-centric forecast
rationale on Helene.

Storm Surge: The most dangerous hazard associated with
Hurricanes. There is increasing confidence of Catastrophic and/or
potentially Unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay. Storm
surge may begin to arrive as early as this afternoon ahead of the
strongest winds, building through landfall. Current storm surge
values across the Bay are: Carrabelle to Suwannee River, 15 to 20
feet. Apalachicola to Carrabelle, 10 to 15 feet. Indian Pass to
Apalachicola, 6 to 10 feet. Mexico Beach to Indian Pass, 3 to 5
feet. Rest of Bay county, 1 to 3 feet.

REMINDER: storm surge DOES NOT include wave action, when
including waves on top of storm surge inundation, these values
could be higher, potentially allowing for greater inland
penetration. The threat to life is significant.

Winds: While exact impacts will be heavily dependent on the
eventual track, expect Catastrophic wind damage near the eventual
landfall point and inland along the track. Widespread and
prolonged power outages, damage to critical infrastructure,
Catastrophic damage to trees and powerlines, widespread
inaccessibility due to blocked roads, and damage to well-built
structures will all be possible, particularly close to and east of
the track. Power outages will likely last days, if not weeks,
near where it makes landfall. Due to the quick forward speed of
Helene, significant wind damage may extend well into Georgia.

Flooding Rain: Widespread heavy rainfall is forecast with this
system and will likely lead to both flash flooding and riverine
flooding. Even though the hurricane is forecast to be moving
quickly, very high rainfall rates and already saturated soils in
some places will still combine for a serious flood risk across the
region. Be prepared for flash flooding and quickly rising rivers
and streams. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. The
WPC currently has most of the region within a Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 3 of 4) and a High Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 4 of 4) near where Helene eventually makes
landfall and further inland along the track.

Tornadoes: While not the highest threat with this system, several
tornadoes will be possible, generally along the east of the
eventual track.

PLEASE heed all local evacuation orders by your local officials,
Helene has the potential to become a generational storm and the
threat it poses is significant to life and property. Every attempt
should be made to finish all preparations as tropical storm force
winds begin to impact the region this morning.

&&

.SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 501 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

By this time, the hurricane has completely moved out of the
region yet, the upper level troughing pattern will remain.
However, it will feel like typical late September with highs in
the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low
70s. PoPs will be low for this period with the better chances in
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend with about a 30% chance for
showers/thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 219 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Mainly IFR conditions are expected through the rest of the night
and through day today due to low cigs. The outer rainbands from
Hurricane Helene will begin impacting the terminals later this
morning, with restrictions in cigs/vsbys due to RA/+RA, possibly
to LIFR. Easterly winds will increase at all terminals during the
morning with gusts around 25 knots. As Hurricane Helene approaches
this evening, easterly wind gusts around 40 to 50 knots are
expected at the terminals. Hurricane Helene will make its closest
approach to the terminals at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

At 11 pm EDT Tuesday, the center of Hurricane Helene was located
about 500 miles south-southwest of Saint Marks Florida, over the
southeast Gulf. Helene will move north-northeast across the eastern
Gulf on Thursday, rapidly strengthening to a major hurricane before
making landfall along the Big Bend Coast on Thursday evening. Helene
will quickly move inland on Friday, so conditions will improve over
the waters. Gentle to moderate southwest breezes will prevail this
weekend, as a large area of low pressure spins over the Lower
Mississippi Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 501 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Helene is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane along
the Big Bend coast late this evening or tonight. Heavy, flooding
rain will begin as soon as this afternoon, well in advance of the
center of Helene. Tree damage will be most widespread in the right
eyewall of the hurricane. The fast forward speed of the hurricane
will spread damaging winds further inland than your typical
hurricane, posing the risk of tree damage well north into our
Georgia districts on Thursday night into Friday morning.
Preparations for Helene should be rushed to completion. Weather
conditions will improve going into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 501 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Primary focus continues to be on the approach of Hurricane Helene
to the region. The system has the potential to bring significant
rain to the region, even accounting for its fast forward motion as
it nears the Florida Big Bend.

There is a High Risk (level 4 out of 4) for flash flooding across
much of the Florida Big Bend, eastern Florida Panhandle, and the
southwestern portion of Georgia for today through tonight due to
the passage of Hurricane Helene. The rest of the forecast area is
included in a Moderate risk for flash flooding (level 3 out of 4)
for today. Rainfall amounts across most of the region totaling 5
to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals approaching 10
to 15 inches are forecast through early Friday. These amounts will
lead to considerable urban flash flooding along with the
potential for moderate flooding, especially on the Ochlockonee
River Basin. Depending on where the heaviest rains are distributed
inland, it is entirely possible that other river basins could
experience moderate riverine flooding in the days ahead.

For storm surge information, please refer to the latest
information from the National Hurricane Center. This is an
extremely dangerous storm surge threat in the Apalachee Bay. Storm
Surge around Apalachee Bay will not just merely be a coastal
event in this system, but will spread many miles inland. If
ordered to evacuate, heed the advice of local emergency managers -
it could save your life!

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   79  70  85  69 / 100  90   0   0
Panama City   78  71  83  74 /  90  80   0   0
Dothan        76  65  81  65 /  90  90   0   0
Albany        78  68  81  66 /  90 100   0   0
Valdosta      83  72  85  67 / 100  90   0   0
Cross City    85  75  87  74 / 100 100  10  10
Apalachicola  81  74  83  75 / 100  80   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ007>019-026>029-034-
     108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ007>010-012-108-112.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ011-013>019-026>029-034-114-115-118-127-
     128-134.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ027-114-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

     Hurricane Warning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for ALZ065>069.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ065-066-068.

     Hurricane Warning for ALZ067-069.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ750-770.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ730-752-755-765-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery