153
FXUS62 KTAE 191725
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
125 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

We ended up canceling the Dense Fog Advisory early this morning
as conditions were improving across much of the area. A touch of
stratus and perhaps patchy fog may linger over Lee, Worth,Turner,
Irwin, Dougherty, Worth, and Tift counties, but that should
dissipate rather quickly. The forecast otherwise remains on track
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Drier conditions are expected through the near term period in the
wake of a weak front. Generally light north to northeast winds
are expected today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Fog
will be possible this morning, particularly across portions of GA
and the FL Big Bend but should dissipate around mid-morning.
Otherwise, enjoy the pleasant weather today!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The upper level trough will continue to lift north as an upper
level ridge expands from the west. Dry conditions with light
northeast winds are expected Friday through Saturday with
afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. Overnight
lows will be around 70 degrees. Both the highs and lows are a few
degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Upper level high pressure will continue through the long term,
keeping us dry with temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s. Light northeasterly winds will
become more easterly by the start of the week.

For the extended forecast, global models are suggesting possible
tropical development in the Western/Northwestern Caribbean Sea;
yet, there is significant spread within the ensembles and they
vary with each run. Hence, it is too soon to determine any
possible impacts. The NHC does have a tropical outlook area of
development with an area of low pressure having a medium (40%)
chance of development over the next seven days. We will continue
to monitor. Now would be a good time to check up on your hurricane
kits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

High pressure gradually builds into region with winds at the TAF
sites shifting from NNW today to NNE on Friday; the exception will
be a sea-breeze working into ECP late this afternoon where winds
will shift to the WSW. Some residual low-level moisture and light
winds on Friday morning may lead to a couple hours of MVFR in fog
at VLD. Cannot rule out brief restrictions in fog at the other
TAF sites, such as TLH, but confidence is low at this time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Light and variable winds anticipated through the rest of the
week. Drier conditions are expected heading into the weekend. East
and northeasterly flow is established during the weekend and may
lead to cautionary conditions and higher seas during the overnight
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Generally dry conditions are expected for the next few days. High
dispersions will be possible across Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle this afternoon due to high mixing heights. Otherwise,
there are no fire weather concerns for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Rain chances are minimal through the next several days as high
pressure will expand over the region. There are no riverine
flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  70  89  69 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   90  73  89  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        90  70  89  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        89  70  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      89  70  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    91  71  90  69 /  10  10  10   0
Apalachicola  87  74  87  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery