843
FXUS62 KTAE 191509
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1109 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Cloud cover has been a bit more extensive and stubborn this
morning than perivously forecast. Nudged high temperatures down a
touch due to slower warming overall, but still expect low to mid
90s across the area. Otherwise, no other changes needed.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Strong high pressure to the northeast and a formative tropical
cyclone in the southwest Gulf will keep strong easterly flow in
place until Thursday night or Friday morning. High pressure will
settle south across the region on Saturday, then continue south
into the Gulf on Sunday. A weak front will sag south through
Alabama and Georgia on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 434 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

We are in the midst of a prolonged period of strong easterly
breezes, thanks to interaction between strong off pressure off the
Northeast U.S. coast, and a formative tropical cyclone over the
Southwest Gulf. Generally speaking, the strong easterlies will
continue through Thursday evening.

Within the easterly flow, we currently have a tropical wave
moving across the Florida Peninsula early this morning, and it
will pass across the eastern Gulf after sunrise. This feature is
responsible for the ongoing enhancement of the easterlies.
Overnight, there have been frequent gusts of 40+ mph at exposed
locations along the Franklin County coast, so the Wind Advisory
will continue there until winds experience a reliable diurnally-
induced decrease in speed late this morning.

Otherwise, isolated showers will dot the landscape through
Thursday, with mainly light rainfall amounts. Last evenings 00z
TAE balloon sounding revealed a strong subsidence inversion around
8,500 feet, which should limit depth of convection and keep
thunder out of the picture.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 434 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Easterly winds will decrease during this period. During this time,
the strong high pressure off the NOrtheast U.S. coast will start
to weaken, settle south toward Bermuda, and extend a southward-
moving ridge axis across the Southeast States. In addition, the
passage of an easterly wave on Friday will further disrupt the
straight- shot easterlies and muddy the current crisp-looking
pressure pattern.

As low-mid level flow becomes south of east in the wake of Fridays
easterly wave, a more sustained increase in Precipitable Water
(PW) values will occur, reaching levels that will support a return
of deep, moist convection, i.e. thunderstorms, by afternoon. The
main large-scale limiting factor will be a strong 500 mb
subtropical ridge axis over the Southeast States, so convection
will still be tied closely to where low- level lift is maximized.
Examples would be confluent bands in southeast flow behind the
easterly wave axis, or where the seabreeze --- which is currently
lacking in the strong wind regime --- finally returns against the
backdrop of weaker flow on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 434 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The strong 500 mb subtropical ridge axis over the Southeast States
will gradually bifurcate, with one strong lobe retrograding to the
Southwest U.S., and another strong lobe developing over the mid-
Atlantic Ocean southeast of Bermuda. Here in between, we will see
a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge axis with mid-level
heights lowering a little each day.

At the surface, an east-west ridge axis will slip southward across
the service area on Saturday, then slowly retreat equatorward
toward the Southeast Gulf through Tuesday. A weak summertime
front will sag south through Alabama and Georgia on Monday and
Tuesday, with light south-southwest low-level flow over the tri-
state area. The flow will bring up a richly and increasingly moist
air mass from the south, with PW values at or above 2 inches by
early next week. Given proximity of the frontal boundary to the
north and our more normal seabreeze convergence, thunderstorm
chances and potential for heavy pockets of rain will be
increasing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The main aviation concern will continue to be breezy/elevated
east winds thru the period despite prevailing VFR conds. Terminals
are looking at sustained 12-15 kts today with gusts up to 25 kts
at times from mid-morning to early evening. After sunset, winds
return to about 10 kts. Have mentions of VCSH and brief MVFR cigs
at TLH given light radar returns. Showers may also be invof ECP
this aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The highest wind speeds in this prolonged multi-day period of
strong easterly breezes are occurring this morning, though it will
take until Friday morning to close the door on Small Craft
conditions. Early this morning, Buoy 42036 was observing whopping
9-foot seas, and frequent gale- force gusts have been observed
along the Franklin County coast at places like the St. George
Island Bridge. Small craft should remain in port.

Even once winds decrease to merely gentle breezes over the
northeast Gulf this weekend, strong breezes over the southern Gulf
will continue to generate swell that will propagate into the
northeast Gulf. So look for 2-4 foot swell this weekend, despite
decreased winds. It may be a weekend to enjoy the protected bay
and inland waters.

From CWF synopsis...Strong easterly breezes will continue through
Thursday due to interaction between a strong high off the
Northeast U.S. coast and a formative tropical cyclone in the
southwest Gulf. Winds this morning are being further enhanced by a
passing tropical wave, bringing frequent gale-force gusts until
late this morning. Look for winds to decrease over the course of
Friday and Saturday, as an east-west ridge axis settles southward
through the Southeast States. The ridge axis will slip south of
the waters on Sunday, bringing a turn to gentle southerly and
southwesterly winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Strong easterly breezes will continue through Thursday, then start
to decrease on Friday. Winds will finally become light from
Saturday on. Until the strong breezes end, dispersion will remain
high. Summer thunderstorms will be lacking through Thursday, but a
few fast-moving weak showers and sprinkles will dot the
landscape. The air mass will moisten on Friday and Saturday,
marking a transition back to more routine summer thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 434 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Rainfall through at least this weekend will not be hydrologically
significant, and no flooding is expected.

During the first half of next work week, the air mass will become
richly moist, and a decaying front will slip south through Alabama
and Georgia. Steering flow for thunderstorms will be somewhat
slow. The potential for slow-moving and backbuilding storm cores
producing torrential rainfall rates will start to raise potential
for isolated flash flooding, especially as we get out to Tuesday
and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  73  92  72 /  10   0  30  10
Panama City   91  74  92  74 /  30  10  40  20
Dothan        92  70  92  70 /   0   0  20   0
Albany        94  70  92  69 /   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      92  71  92  71 /  10  10  20  10
Cross City    93  73  93  72 /  30  10  40  20
Apalachicola  88  77  89  76 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ Thursday for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner