Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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009 FXUS62 KTAE 151005 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 605 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A localized but incredible rainfall event is taking place early this morning, stretching from Jackson county northward to Henry county. Private weather stations in the Headland area in Henry county have picked up over 9 inches of rain so far, a large portion of which has fallen in just 5 hours. Meanwhile, farther south in Jackson county, the Marianna airport (KMAI) picked up a whopping 3.76 inches of rain in just one hour. Needless to say, life threatening flash flooding exists out there early this morning in this corridor. Please be careful! As we head through the day, the boundary responsible for this activity is expected to shift slowly westward. Storms this morning will eventually weaken, and additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. The flood watch has been extended through the day. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The stationary front may sag a bit farther south on Monday, perhaps over our western offshore waters. However, there are differences within the model guidance with some of the global models showing perhaps a farther north solution and hi-res guidance a bit further south. Either way, it appears the best chances for rain on Monday will be across the Panhandle and into southeast Alabama. Given the close proximity of the front and ample moisture (PWATs 1.8 to 2.1 inches), still can`t rule out a heavy rain threat along the coastal Panhandle. Highs Monday will be in the lower half of the 80s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. On Tuesday, the front tries to lift north a bit Tuesday, closer to or over the Panhandle coast. Again, moisture is still abundant with PWATs around 1.7 to 1.9 inches, which could lead to a localized flash flood threat. Best rain chances will be near the Emerald Coast, though perhaps less coverage overall. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The stationary front continues to slowly become more diffuse and move off to the south and east later in the week. The upper-level pattern will become rather chaotic as the upper-level low associated with a surface low moving into the Carolinas meanders southward over the southeast US. However, the stronger northerly flow will help usher in some drier air to our area, potentially bringing an end to our very wet pattern. As a result, temperatures will increase back to the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 In general, ceilings are expected to start out in the MVFR to IFR range this morning across the area. Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected to be near DHN this morning and into the afternoon hours with the best chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. IFR ceilings this morning are expected to improve to MVFR later this morning and possibly VFR for a few spots this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Winds will be generally be light across the waters over the next several days, but given the presence of a stationary front and waves of low pressure, wind direction will be variable through the next 5 days. This front will also keep the weather rather unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with recent wetting rains, a moist airmass in place, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms continuing. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 An extreme event has unfolded late last evening into the overnight hours. Significant flash flooding was observed over parts of Henry, Houston, and Jackson Counties with several spots exceeding an estimated 1-in-200 year annual recurrence interval. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches occurred, a good portion of that within a matter of a couple hours. Given the possibility of additional bands of heavy rain, have adjusted the Flood Watch to be more over southeast Alabama, far western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle into the western Big Bend. These areas are extremely vulnerable to any additional rainfall, and it won`t take much to cause issues. Flash flood guidance is around 1-3 inches in 1 hour or about 2-4 inches in 3 hours. WPC has maintained the Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) across the Florida Panhandle Monday and Tuesday as well to account for the potential for locally heavy rainfall continuing. Can`t rule out isolated areas of 3-6 inches (or possibly more) through the next couple days. On the river side, the Kinchafoonee at Preston has crested and is nearly out of flood stage. The Kinchafoonee and Muckalee basins should see action stage levels over the next couple days. Along the ACF, the Chattahoochee at Columbia L&D as well as the Apalachicola at Blountstown are also forecast to reach action stage. Depending on where these bands of heavy rain set up, some of the smaller creeks could see quick rises, and some mainstem rivers may also see some rises. But currently, no mainstem rivers are forecast to reach flood stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 70 82 68 / 70 20 40 20 Panama City 83 72 83 71 / 70 50 70 50 Dothan 80 68 80 67 / 70 50 50 20 Albany 81 69 81 66 / 60 20 30 10 Valdosta 83 69 82 67 / 60 20 30 10 Cross City 87 72 84 70 / 60 20 50 10 Apalachicola 83 73 82 73 / 50 50 70 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ009>015-026-112-114-115. GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ120>123-142-143-155. AL...Flood Watch through this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Young