Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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912 FXUS62 KTAE 261911 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 311 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Thunderstorm activity started a little earlier than expected today and this has resulted in outflow from convection in North Florida moving into portions of South Georgia and Southeast Alabama. While the environmental flow is more favorable for the continuation of convection in South Central Georgia, a few thunderstorms might make it into Southeast Alabama. In any event, storms will be diurnally driven overall, and are expected to diminish in coverage shortly after sunset. As is often the case following afternoon storm events, patchy fog is expected around Tallahassee on Thursday morning and perhaps Valdosta as well. Overnight, expect increasing coverage of storms over the marine area as moderate southwesterly flow and sufficient instability should be enough to get overnight storms going. Over the land area, it will be a warm muggy night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT AND LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Troughing aloft leading up to the weekend will allow a stationary front just north of our CWA border to slide south, cooling temperatures into the low to mid 90s across the area Friday. Heat indices will see a brief decline into the low to mid 100s, with some heat advisories appearing possible. Additionally, some greater shower coverage tomorrow evening may be possible as this frontal feature moves through the area. On Saturday, ridging will begin to build into the area allowing temperatures to soar back into the upper 90s and perhaps the low 100s locally through Monday. Robust moisture will remain in place, resulting in heat indices reaching into the 109-115 range across our FL counties and southernmost SE AL and SW GA counties. Heat advisories appear likely once again this weekend. Thunderstorms are also possible, though areal coverage may be less as high pressure takes over resulting in more localized threats. On Tuesday, temperatures may cool somewhat as a frontal feature approaches the area once again. Low temperatures each night through the period will generally stay within the mid to upper 70s offering very little cooling from the afternoon heat and mugginess. Make sure to stay hydrated and cool through the remainder of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 TSRA ongoing near TLH terminal at TAF issuance but conditions are gradually improving though an additional MVFR restriction is possible through the remainder of the afternoon. TSRA may reach VLD after 19-20z as outflow approaches from the SW with MVFR conditions possible. Otherwise, no storms are expected to affect the other terminals through the afternoon. Overnight is expected to largely be VFR with the exception of TLH and VLD which should experience a period of MVFR vsbys prior to sunrise on Thursday. After 13z all sites are expected to be VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 West southwest winds generally 15kts or less will prevail through Sunday before becoming calm. Wave heights around 1 to 3 feet will prevail through the forecast period with 3 foot waves being favored west of Apalachicola. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening with gusty and erratic winds near and within these thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Moist and humid conditions will continue through the next couple days with above normal chances of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Relative humidity values will be well above critical thresholds. Transport winds will be occasionally strong out of the southwest and this will lead to potentially high dispersions, especially on Friday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 There are no flooding concerns at this time outside of localized nuance flooding caused by slow-moving storms each afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 92 76 92 / 20 50 20 60 Panama City 80 88 78 88 / 30 50 50 50 Dothan 77 91 74 91 / 30 60 30 60 Albany 77 94 74 93 / 30 60 30 60 Valdosta 77 94 75 94 / 20 50 20 50 Cross City 77 92 76 93 / 10 40 20 40 Apalachicola 81 88 79 88 / 30 50 40 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-114-115-118-127. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ112-114. GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ142>148-155>161. AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Godsey SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...Godsey MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Godsey HYDROLOGY...Worster