583
FXUS62 KTAE 201115
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
715 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Overnight satellite and surface observations depict a tropical wave
or inverted trough moving west across the FL Peninsula. This feature
is accompanied by rich moisture with Precipitable Water of 1.6-1.9"
and attendant showers. Such values support deep convection and
therefore appreciable rain chances for today. However, the main
limiting factor on shower/thunderstorm coverage will be mid-level
dry air, evident on water vapor imagery and the 0Z KTAE sounding.
The latter shows a strong cap in the 800-700 mb level.

Best PoP is along/south of the I-10 corridor, especially over the FL
Panhandle this afternoon at ~40-60%. Any inland precipitation comes
to an end by this evening. Otherwise, expect a warm/muggy and
continued breezy east winds, particularly near the Forgotten Coast
where a Wind Advisory is in effect for coastal Franklin County until
8AM EDT. Temperatures peak in the low 90s while lows bottom out from
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

As of 2AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center continues to highlight
a disturbance about 250 mi east of the northernmost Bahamas that has
a low chance (30%) of tropical development over the next 2-7 days.
Regardless of formation, this system is expected to move WNW towards
the NE FL/SE GA coast early on Friday, and usher another, albeit
likely greater round of showers/thunderstorms to kick off the
weekend.

Thereafter, model guidance suggests the disturbance`s associated
circulation gets temporarily "trapped" inland within a stout mid-
upper ridge extending across the Southern US into the Western
Atlantic. As a result, elevated PoP remains in the forecast through
Saturday.

High temperatures remain mostly in the low 90s, but minimums surge
back to the mid 70s thanks to a moist airmass in place. Lastly, a
more relaxed pressure gradient should ease the breeziness we`ve been
experiencing the past couple days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Unsettled weather appears likely during the long-term period as
lingering tropical moisture interacts with a frontal boundary
sagging south. The latter stems from an amplifying upper trough east
of the Great Lakes whose axis initially cascades down the Eastern
Seaboard early next week. In response, the aforementioned ridge
retrogrades westward, thus providing an avenue for SW flow to
moisten our air column. This synoptic pattern supports daily
elevated chances for showers/thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will still be plenty warm tp hot with 90s for highs and
mid 70s for lows each day. The former may run "cooler" depending on
where the axis of greatest precipitation/cloud cover focuses. Those
details are challenging to pin down this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Patchy MVFR cigs have developed at TLH early this morning with
-SHRA invof of the eastern terminals. Shower coverage increases
 further this aftn and TLH/ECP stand the best chance for thunder.
 Highest confidence is in ECP where a TEMPO group is intro`d
 starting from 20Z to 0Z. Terminals are cleared of any precip by
 the evening. East winds will be breezy once again today
- sustained up to 13 kts, gusts near 20 kts. Otherwise, mainly VFR
  conds prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting east winds around 20 kts with 6-ft
seas and dominant period of 8-9 seconds early this morning. An
overnight ASCAT pass also showed a large area of sustained
easterlies of about 25 kts or more over Apalachee Bay

From CWF Synopsis...A tight pressure gradient induced by Tropical
Storm Alberto in the Bay of Campeche and a Mid-Atlantic High
maintains advisory level east winds across the waters. Although
winds gradually relax today and tonight, lingering elevated seas
will still pose a hazard to small craft into Friday morning. For
this weekend, a tropical disturbance brings about increased rain
chances, followed by a front ushering unsettled weather next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon with the best chances along/south of the I-10 corridor.
Lightning appears most likely over the FL Panhandle today.
Otherwise, expect warm/muggy conditions with continued breezy east
winds. The latter prompts widespread high dispersions.

For Friday, rain chances increase further with the westward approach
of a tropical disturbance from NE FL/SE GA coast. The highest PoP is
across the FL Big Bend into South-Central GA. High afternoon
dispersions are forecast once more. Lingering moisture supports
additional showers/thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Wetter weather is upon us over the next several with flooding
potentially becoming a concern this weekend and early next week. The
latest WPC Day 1-7 QPF amounts paint 2+ inches over the Suwannee
Valley where a tropical disturbance aims to move inland from the NE
FL/SE GA coast, followed by a front sagging down the Eastern
Seaboard. Widespread 1 inch is forecast elsewhere during that same
time frame. Of course, localized higher values are always possible
beneath heavy rain from thunderstorms. In terms of rivers, all
basins are currently in good shape.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  71  93  75 /  40  10  60  40
Panama City   90  72  93  77 /  60  10  40  30
Dothan        91  68  92  73 /  20   0  20  10
Albany        93  68  93  73 /  10   0  40  20
Valdosta      91  71  91  73 /  20  10  70  30
Cross City    92  71  91  73 /  40  10  80  40
Apalachicola  86  74  89  77 /  50  10  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday for GMZ730-
     750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3