418
FXUS62 KTAE 140527
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
127 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Lowered rain chances across the Southeast Florida Big Bend for
tonight based on latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on
track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Upper level troughing will slowly give way to high pressure building
in from the west. At the surface, high pressure builds which
combined with the upper level trough, should lead to suppressed
convection. Should any storms develop, we`re expecting them to
generally be south of I-10 and along the sea breeze. But confidence
is low in that happening. Tomorrow will be the beginning of the
warming trend. Highs will make it into the mid 90s for much the
region, with feels like temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for SE
AL and SW GA. FL counties` feels like temperatures will higher, in
the upper 90s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A strong mid-upper ridge building from the west ushers in hazardous
heat conditions through the weekend. Inland air temperatures are
forecast to peak around 100 degrees under mostly strong mid-June
sunshine. These values are much warmer than normal for this time
of year, but much less than the daily record maximum from the
brutal June 15, 2011 heat. Factoring 60s & 70s dew points yield
heat indices ranging from 104-110, which mostly meets our local
advisory criteria. If trends continue or increase, then our first
Heat Advisory could be issued as soon as Friday. Our FL counties
would be the most likely targets. Isolated afternoon
showers/thunderstorms are possible along the seabreeze zone with
the best chances in the Eastern Big Bend. Muggy overnight lows in
the 70s won`t provide much relief.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot weather continues into early next week as the aforementioned
ridge pivots through the region. Sunday`s high-temperature forecast
is a touch lower than Saturday with widespread upper 90s (isolated
100) away from the immediate coast. Heat indices range from about
101-107. We gradually trend "cooler" each successive day in response
to the center of a stout upper anti-cyclone shifting to the Mid-
Atlantic states. Meanwhile, global models/ensembles continue to
highlight solid potential for tropical development in the Bay of
Campeche that would threaten Mexico. This synoptic pattern yields a
brisk easterly flow regime with an increasing pressure gradient
across the Gulf. A plethora of tropical moisture and enhanced
Atlantic seabreeze supports daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially along/south of the FL state line. Low to
mid 70s for minimum temperatures will be common through the long-
term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Low-level northeast flow will keep the air mass somewhat dry at
our five terminals for the next 24 hours. It will be dry enough
to preclude sunrise stratus, as well as any showers or
thunderstorms. So simply look for development of high-based fair
weather cumulus around mid-day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Generally light winds are expected through the weekend outside of
maritime convection with dominant pre-weekend wave periods of 6 to 7
seconds. By Monday, cautionary easterly flow develops and likely
increases to or near advisory levels late Tuesday as the pressure
gradient tightens across the Gulf. Seas should also build from
southwest to northeast during that time. The persistence of tropical
moisture keeps thunderstorms in the forecast as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot temperatures defined by triple-digit heat indices will be the
main story through the weekend. High afternoon dispersions are
forecast Friday and Sunday afternoon. Northeast winds gradually
turn out of the southeast by Sunday with daily afternoon
seabreezes inducing an onshore component from the coast. A
prevailing east wind develops early next week. Tomorrow appears
mostly dry, but isolated showers/thunderstorms are forecast
along/south of the I-10 corridor Saturday with higher rain chances
on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

No significant flooding concerns are anticipated the next several
days. Localized runoff issues are possible from strong and/or slow-
moving thunderstorms, especially in urban, low-lying, and poor-
drainage areas. Riverine prospects look good at this time with
only the Suwannee River - Manatee Springs forecast to drop below
action stage late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  74  98  75 /  10   0  30  10
Panama City   94  77  92  78 /  20   0  20  10
Dothan        96  74  99  75 /  10   0  20  20
Albany        95  74 100  75 /  10   0  20  20
Valdosta      95  73 101  75 /  10   0  30  20
Cross City    96  72  98  73 /  40  10  40  20
Apalachicola  90  78  92  79 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3