221
FXUS62 KTAE 180831
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
431 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION,
MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Strong high pressure to the northeast and a developing tropical
cyclone in the western Gulf will support unseasonably strong
easterly breezes across the region until about Friday morning. An
easterly wave will pass the tri-state area around Friday, followed
by a turn to moister southeast winds on Friday night and Saturday.
A surface ridge axis will settle south across the region on Sunday,
then continue south of the region early next week. The resulting
turn to southwest flow early next week could herald the start of
a wetter pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Wednesday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

In the big picture, a very strong 500 mb ridge axis will expand
and strengthen further from the southern Appalachians to the coast
of New England over the next 24 hours. This has the benefit of
steering the developing tropical cyclone in the southwest Gulf
toward the western Gulf Coast, and away from us.

A tight pressure gradient between these two prominent features
will support unseasonably strong easterly breezes. Dry air from
the strong mid-level high has spread across our region, with
satellite-derived PW imagery showing values over land of 0.9-1.3
inches, with richer moisture to the south over the Gulf. These
values are insufficient for deep, moist convection, but weak and
low-topped showers are possible in the fast easterly flow, such as
is being observed from JAX westward.

Interestingly, satellite imagery shows a classic "screaming eagle"
tropical wave passing north of the Bahamas early this morning. (It
is called that because of its shape in satellite imagery.) This
feature will pass across north- central Florida and the northeast
Gulf late tonight and Wednesday. It will bring somewhat richer
moisture from the Lower Suwannee Valley, across Apalachee Bay to
the Forgotten Coast. It could increase the chance of showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorms in these areas. For mariners,
this feature will likely bring the strongest easterly breezes of
the week late tonight and Wednesday morning. Frequent gale-force
gusts are possible over the waters, and we could eventually need a
Wind Advisory for the southeast-exposed coast of Franklin County.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Strong easterly flow will continue. Within that flow regime,
another easterly wave will pass our longitude on Friday. In
advance of this feature, another pocket of deeper moisture will
quickly traverse the region on Thursday, supporting isolated to
scattered showers, perhaps an isolated thunderstorm over our FL
counties. The arrival of the main wave on Friday should finally
disrupt the straight-shot easterly breezes, and a more solid and
sustained increase in moisture will arrive in the southeast flow
behind the wave axis.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The strong 500 mb high to our northeast this week will settle
south and weaken late this week, elongating into a large-scale
subtropical ridge axis that will extend from the Southwest U.S. to
well east of Bermuda. Guidance points to a broad weakness in the
ridge over the Southeast States and Florida by early next week.
Meanwhile, a surface ridge axis will settle southward across our
region on Saturday night and Sunday, continuing south down the FL
Peninsula on Monday. In response, our low-mid level flow will
gradually clock around from southeast to southwest, though it will
be fairly weak given proximity of the ridge axis. Even so, this
direction will pump up a more richly moist maritime tropical air
mass. Given increasing moisture and that weakness in the
subtropical ridge axis, rain chances will continue to increase a
bit each day. This could be the start of a wet period, with the
CPC 6-10 day outlook showing odds leaning toward above normal
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The main concern this morning will be some stratus as noted on
satellite moving inland from the east coast of FL and Low-Level
Wind Shear (LLWS) where surface winds become light given VAD
Wind Profiles indicating 30 kts of easterly wind around 1.5k ft.
Have indicated SCT cigs from 1.5-3k ft at all terminals but ABY
this morning, which could briefly become BKN leading to MVFR;
have high confidence in SCT cigs but low confidence in MVFR.
Winds at VLD have are near calm, so have inserted LLWS in the
TAF until 14-15z. East winds become gusty again all terminals
from late morning/early afternoon Tuesday to around 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Rough conditions are ongoing over the northeast Gulf, and those
conditions will continue until Friday. An ASCAT satellite pass
late Monday evening showed a large area of 21-24 knot sustained
easterly winds over the waters from Apalachicola eastward, and
those strong breezes have likely spread across the Panhandle
waters since. As of 3 am EDT, Buoy 42036 was observing 8-foot
seas. Winds and seas may actually be a little worse tonight, as a
tropical wave passes westward across the eastern Gulf. Small craft
should stay in port.

Dangerous rip currents are expected through Friday, with surf
heights commonly running 4 to 5 feet.

From CWF synopsis...Strong easterly breezes and rough seas will
continue over the northeast Gulf through Friday morning, thanks to
a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure off the
New England coast and a developing tropical cyclone over the
Southwest Gulf. Winds will start to decrease on Friday, as the
high pressure center to our northeast moves closer to Bermuda and
extends a ridge axis across the Southeast States.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The main story through at least Thursday will be unseasonably
strong easterly transport winds and gusty daytime surface winds.
When combined with a deeply mixed June atmosphere, high dispersion
will prevail for the rest of this work week. Little, if any, rain
is expected through Wednesday, then rain chances will climb a
little each day from Thursday through the weekend. Winds will
start to ease on Friday, with a return to light winds this
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 431 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Significant or widespread flooding is not expected through this
weekend. Little, if any, rain is expected through Thursday. Rain
chances will increase some starting Friday, but rainfall should
not be hydrologically significant.

By Monday and Tuesday of next week, ensemble mean solutions show
1000-700 mb flow becoming southerly, pumping up a more richly
moist maritime tropical air mass. With more moisture to work
with, rainfall loading beneath storms will increase, as steering
flow weakens and storm motions slow down. Therefore, there is
increasing potential for isolated flash flooding starting early
next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  73  93  74 /  10   0  20  10
Panama City   92  76  93  75 /   0  10  30  10
Dothan        90  72  90  72 /  10   0  10   0
Albany        91  71  90  70 /  10   0  10   0
Valdosta      92  71  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
Cross City    93  73  94  73 /  10  10  40  10
Apalachicola  88  79  90  77 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ Thursday for
     GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner