Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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329 FXUS62 KTAE 190517 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 117 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 945 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The main changes tonight`s forecast were reducing rain chances to basically nil and introducing areas of fog with embedded patchy dense fog over eastern portions of SW GA around the I-75 corridor. Confidence is fairly high in spatial fog coverage based on the latest guidance, especially the 0Z HRRR. Patchy fog is also possible for locations that received heavy rainfall earlier this afternoon (e.g., Leon County). && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Showers with isolated, embedded thunderstorms were developing southeast of a Defuniak Springs, FL - Fitzgerald, GA line as of late this afternoon. The main concern with will be local poor drainage flooding, mainly in the FL Big Bend, where the activity is having a tendency to train. This is diurnally driven and will diminish with the setting sun. Late tonight, patchy fog is expected to develop over much of the region and could be locally dense. The fog is expected to dissipate by 10 AM ET/9 AM CT on Thursday. A much drier pattern will take hold on Thursday, with only a slight chance of showers in the afternoon near the I-75 corridor and eastern FL Big Bend. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs on Thursday in the mid-80s to near 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure builds in from the west, which will usher in drier air to the region. High temperatures for Friday will be in the upper 89s across SW GA, while SE AL warms into the lower 90s which is about couple of degrees above normal for this time of year. Our overnight lows will be above normal and in the upper 60s to low 70s for Thursday night and Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Models and ensembles depict upper level high pressure through the long term. Dry weather is expected as well with temperatures generally remaining above normal for this time of years. Highs will generally upper 80s to low 90s through early next week, with perhaps the mid to upper 80s being possible on Tuesday. Overnight lows remain elevated in the upper 60s to low 70s. For those watching the tropics, the National Hurricane Center has placed 20% chance of development in the northwest Caribbean Sea or Yucatan channel next week. Global models and ensembles continue to indicate some sort of tropical development, but there is significant spread and run-to-run variability as to where it might go. Thus it is too soon determine any potential impacts. Please stay tuned to the forecast here with us and over at hurricanes.gov. Now is a good time to check on your hurricane kits. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 IFR to VLIFR fog and low stratus will likely affect GA and FL Big Bend sites through the early morning hours before improving after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 945 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a light west wind with 1-ft seas late this evening. From CWF Synopsis...Wind will vary from the west and north today and Friday, before east to northeast flow returns this weekend and holds into mid next week. Next week, we may see periods of cautionary conditions and higher seas during the overnight hours. In terms of showers and thunderstorms, we may see some nocturnal or morning development tonight and into tomorrow. Otherwise drier conditions should prevail into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Drier conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, and fuels are currently moist from recent rainfall. In addition, dispersions are forecast to be fair. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Today is the last best shot for heavy showers and thunderstorms, before drier air works into the region. Localized flooding remains possible with any slower moving cells or areas of training, especially in urban or poor drainage areas. No riverine flooding is expected at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 71 89 70 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 88 73 89 72 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 88 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 70 89 68 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 70 88 68 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 88 72 90 70 / 20 0 10 0 Apalachicola 86 74 86 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...KR