360
FXUS62 KTAE 201712
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
112 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

No changes were made to this mornings forecast, as it looks to
remain on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Overnight satellite and surface observations depict a tropical wave
or inverted trough moving west across the FL Peninsula. This feature
is accompanied by rich moisture with Precipitable Water of 1.6-1.9"
and attendant showers. Such values support deep convection and
therefore appreciable rain chances for today. However, the main
limiting factor on shower/thunderstorm coverage will be mid-level
dry air, evident on water vapor imagery and the 0Z KTAE sounding.
The latter shows a strong cap in the 800-700 mb level.

Best PoP is along/south of the I-10 corridor, especially over the FL
Panhandle this afternoon at ~40-60%. Any inland precipitation comes
to an end by this evening. Otherwise, expect a warm/muggy and
continued breezy east winds, particularly near the Forgotten Coast
where a Wind Advisory is in effect for coastal Franklin County until
8AM EDT. Temperatures peak in the low 90s while lows bottom out from
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

As of 2AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center continues to highlight
a disturbance about 250 mi east of the northernmost Bahamas that has
a low chance (30%) of tropical development over the next 2-7 days.
Regardless of formation, this system is expected to move WNW towards
the NE FL/SE GA coast early on Friday, and usher another, albeit
likely greater round of showers/thunderstorms to kick off the
weekend.

Thereafter, model guidance suggests the disturbance`s associated
circulation gets temporarily "trapped" inland within a stout mid-
upper ridge extending across the Southern US into the Western
Atlantic. As a result, elevated PoP remains in the forecast through
Saturday.

High temperatures remain mostly in the low 90s, but minimums surge
back to the mid 70s thanks to a moist airmass in place. Lastly, a
more relaxed pressure gradient should ease the breeziness we`ve been
experiencing the past couple days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Unsettled weather appears likely during the long-term period as
lingering tropical moisture interacts with a frontal boundary
sagging south. The latter stems from an amplifying upper trough east
of the Great Lakes whose axis initially cascades down the Eastern
Seaboard early next week. In response, the aforementioned ridge
retrogrades westward, thus providing an avenue for SW flow to
moisten our air column. This synoptic pattern supports daily
elevated chances for showers/thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will still be plenty warm to hot with 90s for highs
and mid 70s for lows each day. The former may run "cooler"
depending on where the axis of greatest precipitation/cloud cover
focuses. Those details are challenging to pin down this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MVFR restrictions are being observed at DHN and ECP this
afternoon; however, they should lift to VFR levels as dry air from
the east continues to push into the region later this afternoon
and into the evening hours. All other terminals are seeing VFR
conditions at this time. Some vicinity showers are currently being
observed at or near all terminals this afternoon. These showers
look to continue for the next few hours, with ECP possibly seeing
a rumble of thunder or two through the late evening. Skies look
to clear through the overnight period before an easterly surge of
moisture pushes into the region during the late morning and early
afternoon on Friday. This could lead to MVFR CIGs developing at
VLD, but it is too uncertain, and just beyond the current TAF
window to include at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting east winds around 20 kts with 6-ft
seas and dominant period of 8-9 seconds early this morning. An
overnight ASCAT pass also showed a large area of sustained
easterlies of about 25 kts or more over Apalachee Bay

From CWF Synopsis...A tight pressure gradient induced by Tropical
Storm Alberto in the Bay of Campeche and a Mid-Atlantic High
maintains advisory level east winds across the waters. Although
winds gradually relax today and tonight, lingering elevated seas
will still pose a hazard to small craft into Friday morning. For
this weekend, a tropical disturbance brings about increased rain
chances, followed by a front ushering unsettled weather next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon with the best chances along/south of the I-10 corridor.
Lightning appears most likely over the FL Panhandle today.
Otherwise, expect warm/muggy conditions with continued breezy east
winds. The latter prompts widespread high dispersions.

For Friday, rain chances increase further with the westward approach
of a tropical disturbance from NE FL/SE GA coast. The highest PoP is
across the FL Big Bend into South-Central GA. High afternoon
dispersions are forecast once more. Lingering moisture supports
additional showers/thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Wetter weather is upon us over the next several with flooding
potentially becoming a concern this weekend and early next week. The
latest WPC Day 1-7 QPF amounts paint 2+ inches over the Suwannee
Valley where a tropical disturbance aims to move inland from the NE
FL/SE GA coast, followed by a front sagging down the Eastern
Seaboard. Widespread 1 inch is forecast elsewhere during that same
time frame. Of course, localized higher values are always possible
beneath heavy rain from thunderstorms. In terms of rivers, all
basins are currently in good shape.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  93  75  94 /  10  60  40  60
Panama City   72  93  77  91 /  10  40  30  40
Dothan        68  92  73  94 /   0  20  10  50
Albany        68  93  73  95 /   0  40  20  40
Valdosta      71  91  73  95 /  10  70  30  60
Cross City    71  91  73  94 /  10  80  40  70
Apalachicola  74  89  77  88 /  10  50  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday for GMZ730-
     750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3