Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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010 FXUS62 KTAE 161748 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 148 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A deepening area of low pressure off the Carolina Coast has contributed to northeasterly surface winds across the area and will continue to do so today. This has pushed a frontal boundary offshore across our western waters, which will lead to reduced rain chances across most of the region today. However, the Florida panhandle will still be close enough to the front and deeper moisture to result in 40-60 percent chances of showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Elsewhere, rain chances will decrease to less than 20 percent the further northeast one goes across the forecast area. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s across the northern counties to the low 70s farther south. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 An upper level low over the southeastern US will be the main influence for our weather through the short term. We can expect westerly/southwesterly flow. This would allow for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop Tuesday along the Panhandle coast during the afternoon hours. The low will shift eastward, moving the better rain chances to the Southeast Big Bend for Wednesday. PoPs range at around 40-50 for locations south of I-10 on Tuesday, and 30-40 percent on Wednesday. There is a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday covering the FL Panhandle. This is mainly due to already saturated conditions and the rain chances with forecast PWATs of 1.5-2" that could lead to heavy rainfall. Our AL and GA counties average about 20%-30% PoPs for both days. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s for the short term with overnight lows in the upper 60s/low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The upper level low will be lifting to the north but the overall trough will still linger over the region for the start of the long term period. At the surface, high pressure will build in keeping the area dry with northerly flow. PoPs will be below 20% with the best chances for rain along and south of I-10. Temperatures will start with highs in the low 90s, then cool to the 80s as we head into the weekend due to the high pressure and northerly flow of "cooler" air. Overnight lows will remain steady in the upper 60s/low 70s. During the weekend, the global models fall out of agreement as to what becomes of the upper level trough. It is possible for the trough to retreat back south and cause cloudy/rainy conditions for our region later in the weekend. We will continue to monitor its progress. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Fairly thick MVFR stratocu deck on northeasterly flow is well entrenched through the southeast US. Have continued MVFR cigs through 20Z then lifting those to VFR but it may very well stay entrenched through the afternoon hours. High resolution guidance is decreasing rain chances a little in the panhandle and western Big Bend but kept VCTS/VCSH at ECP/TLH this afternoon. Overnight, some light fog could develop around VLD 10-13Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Winds will be generally be light across the waters over the next several days, but given the presence of a stationary front over our waters and waves of low pressure, wind direction will be variable through the next few days. This front will also keep the weather rather unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms but drier conditions could develop across area waters by the latter part of the upcoming week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with recent wetting rains and a moist airmass in place. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Heavy rainfall accumulations are not expected over the next several days, however due to the already saturated ground, the WPC has placed the FL Panhandle in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall today and Tuesday as it wouldn`t take much to produce flooding. For our rivers, we do have a few along the ACF that are in Action Stage. Local streams may rise if heavy storms develop over them however, none of our mainstem rivers are forecast to reach Flood stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 82 68 86 70 / 30 10 40 10 Panama City 83 70 85 72 / 60 40 50 20 Dothan 81 66 84 68 / 30 20 30 10 Albany 82 64 85 68 / 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 82 66 86 69 / 30 10 20 10 Cross City 85 69 89 71 / 30 10 30 10 Apalachicola 82 72 83 74 / 60 30 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Montgomery