Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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077 FXUS62 KTBW 231815 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 215 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Quiet conditions today and tomorrow as a weak surface high hangs over the SE and Gulf Coast area. Drier air aloft is limiting shower and storm development today, with the exception being a few isolated showers that could pop up mainly along SWFL. Moisture continues to increase into the week. Main weather story of the week will be the development of potential tropical cyclone 9. National Hurricane Center is expecting this disturbance to strengthen quickly once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico and could potentially be a major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. Impacts all along the west coast of Florida will be likely. The exact location and magnitude of these impacts is still uncertain. However, we encourage everyone to continue to monitor the latest updates from the NHC and local NWS offices and make sure you have a hurricane plan in place while there is time to prepare. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions prevail with a ENE flow becoming more SE tomorrow. There is a chance some isolated showers/storms develop around SWFL this afternoon however confidence was low that any would directly impact terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Quiet marine conditions for the remainder of today into tomorrow. However conditions are expected to deteriorate quickly by WEdnesday as the tropical system moves closer to our outer waters. Dangerous marine conditions are expected in the Gulf all along the West Coast of Florida, by Wednesday night and could continue into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Though a bit drier today and tomorrow, RH values will remain above critical levels. Moisture continues to increase through the week as a tropical system moves toward the NE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 93 77 90 / 0 10 10 70 FMY 77 94 78 89 / 20 30 30 90 GIF 75 94 77 91 / 0 10 10 60 SRQ 75 94 77 91 / 10 20 20 80 BKV 70 94 74 91 / 0 10 0 60 SPG 80 94 81 91 / 10 20 20 80 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn