012
FXUS62 KTBW 170724
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Strong surface high pressure centered off the Atlantic seaboard is
ridging southwest into the southeastern US, setting up an easterly
flow regime over the forecast area that will hold through the week
and into the weekend. Drier air is filling in aloft from the
northeast today, which will limit rain chances for much of the area,
with the exception of southwest Florida which could see higher rain
chances as moisture streams west into the Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday
and Wednesday, a couple plumes of moisture will shift west into
Florida from the Atlantic, allowing rain chances to begin to
creep back upwards.

Thursday into Friday, global models are continuing to show an area
of low pressure developing and shifting west somewhere into the
east coast just north of Florida late Thursday night or Friday.
There is still a fair amount of model uncertainty with this system
with the track, strength of the low, and timing...but there is a
decent amount of agreement on increasing moisture and rain
chances Thursday through the weekend under continued easterly
flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, although
some MVFR ceilings will be possible around sunrise this morning,
mainly over southwest Florida around KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW. A few
showers or storms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening hours, but chances are too low to mention in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

High pressure holding north of Florida will keep generally easterly
winds in place over the coastal waters through the week. Wind speeds
will increase today and Tuesday in response to a tightening pressure
gradient between this high pressure and a developing area of low
pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico, with Small Craft Exercise
Caution winds expected at times today. Wind speeds will increase
to Small Craft Advisory levels tonight through Tuesday morning,
and hold near or above advisory levels through the rest of the
week. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in the
vicinity of daily thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will
increase Thursday and Friday as a tropical wave pushes west into
Florida from the Atlantic.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

No humidity concerns. High dispersion indices are expected each
afternoon through the first half of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  76  93  77 /  10   0  20  20
FMY  92  76  94  77 /  20  10  30  20
GIF  91  74  91  75 /  10  10  30  20
SRQ  94  75  95  77 /  10   0  30  20
BKV  93  71  94  73 /  10   0  20  10
SPG  93  80  94  80 /  10   0  30  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday
     for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Fleming