Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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885 FXUS62 KTBW 250729 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 329 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 At the surface, weak high pressure across northern Florida will get edged out today as Tropical Storm Helene strengthens and lifts north into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Due to the approach of Helene, a tightening pressure gradient across the Florida Peninsula will result in winds becoming breezy today, while increasing moisture will also result in more numerous showers and storms through the afternoon and evening. With the onset of tropical storm force winds not expected before tonight or tomorrow morning, residents should finish up any final preparations today. Conditions will continue to rapidly deteriorate overnight, with tropical rain bands spreading across the area and winds increasing as the center of Helene approaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. The biggest threat to life and property will be from storm surge along the coast Thursday and Friday, with peak surge values of 10-15 feet possible at points along the coast in Levy and Citrus counties, and as much as 5-8 feet possible at points along the coast in the Tampa Bay. Onshore winds behind the system on Friday will also keep coastal flooding ongoing longer than other tropical hazards. Storm surge is historically the biggest killer from tropical systems, so it is important that residents heed evacuation orders from local officials. Evacuate before surge begins to rise, as surge waters move in quickly and will cut off escape routes. Helene also poses an extreme wind threat, with the system expected to produce a very large wind field, with hurricane and tropical storm force winds expected to be felt well away from the center. The timing of the greatest wind impacts is expected to start in southwest Florida early Thursday morning and expand northward through the Nature Coast through the late morning. Tropical Storm force winds are expected to begin to subside over southwest Florida Thursday evening, around the Tampa Bay around midnight, and exit the Nature Coast during the early morning hours on Friday. The highest wind speeds are forecast to be along the coast and especially over the northern half of the forecast area as Helene moves northeast. Residents should be prepared to shelter out of the wind Thursday in well built structures away from surge zones and flood prone areas. Flooding rains will also pose a significant threat to life and property. After the round of showers today, rain bands sweep through the area tonight through Thursday night. After a brief dry slot pushes into the area Thursday night and early Friday, a band of deep tropical moisture trailing behind Helene will setup across the Florida Peninsula Friday through the weekend, resulting in additional rounds of heavy rainfall well after Helene departs. 5 day rain totals are expected to generally range from 3-6 inches, with localized amounts of up to around 10 inches possible. The highest totals are most likely to be along the coast. A flood watch is in effect for the entire forecast area. Stay out of flood waters and do not attempt to drive across flooded roads. Otherwise, there is also a limited threat of tornadoes embedded in the rain bands, mainly on Thursday. As Helene pulls away Friday and Saturday, onshore winds will also continue to produce high surf and a high risk or rip currents at area beaches. By Monday and Tuesday, weak high pressure will setup across the Florida Peninsula with the weakened remains of Helene to the north. Somewhat drier air will fill in under weak westerly and northwesterly flow, resulting in scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through this morning, then areas of MVFR/local IFR conditions will develop in the afternoon as scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms develop and spread northward. East to southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots through early this morning will increase to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts and shift to more southeasterly late this morning through Wednesday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Tropical Storm Helene in the northwest Caribbean Sea is forecast to continue to strengthen as it lifts into the southern Gulf of Mexico today. An increasing pressure gradient ahead of this system is leading to building winds and seas tonight and Wednesday, as well as increasing rain chances. Wednesday night and Thursday the marine conditions will become extremely dangerous as Helene is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane and move northeast through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions will slowly improve Friday and Friday night as Helene pulls away, although rain chances will stay elevated through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 No humidity concerns. Conditions will become breezy today with rain chances increasing from the south as Tropical Storm Helene pushes north into the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions will then rapidly deteriorate tonight and Thursday as Helene strengthens and moves northeast through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with hurricane and tropical storm conditions possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 87 80 / 80 80 100 70 FMY 90 78 88 81 / 90 90 90 80 GIF 91 77 88 79 / 80 70 90 70 SRQ 92 76 88 80 / 80 90 100 80 BKV 92 74 87 77 / 80 80 100 70 SPG 91 79 87 82 / 80 90 100 80 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Flood Watch from this evening through Friday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Hurricane Watch for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco- Pinellas. Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Fleming AVIATION...Close