Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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559 FXUS62 KTBW 180745 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 345 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .DISCUSSION... An upper-level cutoff low over the southeastern U.S. will slowly lift out over the next few days, though troughing will remain over the eastern U.S. through the rest of the week and part of the weekend before ridging eventually builds in. At the surface, a fairly weak pressure pattern will remain in place with light onshore wind flow becoming northeast by the end of week and continue through early next week as weak high pressure builds in. For today and Thursday, expect a similar rainfall pattern as yesterday, with some relatively drier air in place and the highest rain chances for the interior and southwest Florida region. Friday looks to bring some even drier air (again, relatively speaking), so although the best rain chances will be for those same areas, overall coverage should be lower. As we head into the weekend and early next week, there really isn`t much to get excited about as moisture values remain about the same and so we can expected isolated to scattered convection each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Rain chances are slightly higher today and have included PROB30 groups for all terminals this afternoon, though highest coverage will be inland with a west flow in place. Showers and storms come to an end around or a bit after 00Z. && .MARINE... Light winds will continue through the next couple of days with the sea breeze developing near the coast each afternoon. High pressure will then build in to our north Friday through the weekend, turning winds to the northeast. No headlines are expected through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 76 90 75 / 20 10 40 10 FMY 93 76 92 75 / 50 30 60 30 GIF 94 75 92 74 / 40 20 50 20 SRQ 91 75 90 75 / 20 20 40 20 BKV 91 72 90 71 / 30 10 30 10 SPG 91 80 90 79 / 20 10 30 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ 05/Carlisle