Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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259 FXUS62 KTBW 210745 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 In the upper levels, a broad trough axis extending from the western Atlantic into Florida today will slowly push east through the weekend as a strong ridge over Texas slides east into the Gulf of Mexico and across Florida by early next week. At the surface, high pressure to the north of Florida will keep light and generally easterly and northeasterly flow in place across the forecast area this weekend and into early next week. A fairly dry airmass will limit rain chances, although enough moisture is present for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon and push west across the Florida Peninsula during the afternoon and into the Gulf during the evening, with the highest rain chances over the southern half of the forecast area. The forecast becomes more uncertain during the second half of next week, as a surface area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southern Gulf of Mexico by mid week, then continue to develop and move north through Gulf through the end of the week. While there is high confidence that something is going to develop, there is much lower confidence in forecasting the strength and exact track of this system, which means there is a large range of possible outcomes for the weather in west central and southwest Florida. At a minimum, atmospheric moisture is forecast to rebound during the second half of the week, which will allow for rain chances to increase each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours. Some isolated showers will be possible after 20z this afternoon, although confidence is not high enough to mention in the TAFs at this time. Any rain that develops is forecast to clear out by around 03z this evening. Otherwise, northeast flow will hold, with a limited sea breeze possible this afternoon for sites near the coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure and drier air will hold over the area through the weekend and the early next week, with generally easterly flow remaining less than 15 knots through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day, creating locally higher winds and hazardous boating conditions. Winds will begin to increase on Wednesday as an area of low pressure develops in the southern Gulf of Mexico. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 No humidity concerns. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 74 92 75 / 20 10 20 10 FMY 92 74 93 76 / 30 10 20 10 GIF 92 74 93 75 / 30 10 30 0 SRQ 92 74 93 75 / 20 20 10 10 BKV 92 70 93 71 / 10 0 20 0 SPG 92 78 92 79 / 20 10 10 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming