Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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024 FXUS62 KTBW 260021 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 821 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 819 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Hurricane Helene is centered in the Southern Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is forecasted to strengthen through tonight and Thursday as it moves northeast through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Widespread tropical impacts are expected across West-Central and Southwest Florida beginning tonight and Thursday. * Storm Surge - Life threatening storm surge is expected Thursday and Friday. Potential peak surge amounts are 10 to 15 feet from Chassahowitzka to Suwannee River, 6 to 10 feet from Anclote River to Chassahowitzka, 5 to 8 feet from Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River, 4 to 7 feet from Englewood to Middle of Longboat Key, and 3 to 5 feet from Bonita Beach to Englewood. * Rain - Flooding rain threat will run from this evening through this weekend with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches possible. Even after Helene pulls away, additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected this weekend. * Wind - Hurricane and tropical storm force winds will be possible tonight through Thursday night with the highest probabilities along the coast. * Tornadoes - Isolated tornadoes are possible Thursday across the area. Just a few adjustments to POPs have been made this evening to reflect the latest observed trends and to incorporate the latest high-res CAM guidance. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Occasional MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible through early tonight as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms move quickly northward ahead of Hurricane Helene. Flight conditions will deteriorate further later tonight through Thursday as rainbands spread north bringing MVFR/occasional IFR conditions. East to southeast winds will increase and shift to southerly Thursday afternoon. Sustained winds around 10 knots this evening will become 15-25 knots later tonight, then 25-35 knots on Thursday with gusts reaching up to 50 to 60 kts in some of the stronger rainbands. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warnings are in effect for all waters as Hurricane Helene enters the Gulf of Mexico today. This storm will continue to move northward and pass over our waters through Thursday, with very dangerous marine conditions continuing as it strengthens into a major hurricane. Helene will make landfall around the Big Bend region later Thursday with elevated winds continuing into Friday before decreasing for the weekend. Waves will continue to build for the rest of the day and remain elevated through Friday before those also decrease for the weekend. Continue to follow the National Hurricane Center for updates on Helene. && && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Hurricane Helene will pass over the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Thursday, bringing frequent rain bands and strong winds. No relative humidity concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 78 87 80 / 70 90 90 80 FMY 89 79 85 81 / 70 90 90 90 GIF 90 76 86 79 / 80 70 90 80 SRQ 90 80 89 81 / 70 90 100 80 BKV 90 77 84 77 / 80 80 100 80 SPG 90 79 85 82 / 70 90 90 80 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee- Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy- Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk- Sumter. Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Hurricane Watch for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco- Pinellas. Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE/FORECAST TONIGHT...Flannery AVIATION...Close PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Carlisle/Shiveley