510
FXUS62 KTBW 170724
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
324 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough spins over the southeast U.S. early this
morning, with Atlantic ridging extending toward the Florida Straits.
At the surface, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight remains over the
Carolinas while a weak boundary persists over Florida. For the rest
of today, some relatively drier air will remain over the local area,
helping to limit overall convective coverage. Low-level flow will be
relatively light and onshore, leading to the best rain chances over
the interior.

The trough aloft generally persists over the southeast through much
of the week before ridging builds over the area for the weekend. PTC
8 will slowly weaken over the next day or so while the boundary over
Florida lingers through the week. Light onshore flow will continue
through the next few days, then shift to northerly for the end of
the week and then back to northeast to east for the weekend as high
pressure builds in from the north. Overall, we`ll see rain chances
each day, but some lower PWs will continue to limit coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Some periodic MVFR cigs will be possible early this morning, then
VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day. A few
showers will be possible early in the day for coastal sites, but
best thunderstorm chances will be for KLAL and southwest Florida
terminals this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds continue for the next several days with no headlines
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  91  76 /  20  10  40  20
FMY  92  77  92  76 /  40  20  60  40
GIF  93  75  93  75 /  40  10  50  30
SRQ  91  76  91  76 /  20  10  40  30
BKV  91  71  91  72 /  20   0  40  20
SPG  90  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

05/Carlisle