606
FXUS62 KTBW 161839
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
239 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Weather pattern will look very similiar each day this week. PTC 8
which is expected to push into the Carolinas and slowly push north
will help to keep west to southwest winds to Florida. The biggest
story for us will be the lack of shower activity across the area.
This is due to lower PWs that will be over the state. Our average PW
this time of year is around 1.8 while it looks like we will be
measure more around 1.5 to 1.7 each day. It might not seem that big
of a difference but that slightly lower PW will keep chances of rain
mainly between 20 to 40 percent each day.

An upper level trough looks to push through sometime on Friday which
will shift our upper level flow to the northeast. However, those
lower PWs will still be around keep shower chances between 20 to 40
percent for the weekend. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Clouds have broken up and we finally see VFR conditions at all
airport in the CWA. This trend looks to continue over the next 24
hours with light winds generally staying below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The forecast will remain mostly the same each day this
week. We will continue to see weak westerly flow each day with winds
around 5 to 10 knots. Shower chances will remain on the lower end
each day hovering around 20 to 40 percent.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the
weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  76  90 /  10  20  10  30
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  20  60
GIF  75  91  75  93 /  20  50  10  50
SRQ  76  90  76  91 /  20  20  10  30
BKV  71  90  71  91 /  10  30   0  30
SPG  79  90  80  90 /  10  20  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close