483
FXUS62 KTBW 161414
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1014 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Once again dealing with some low clouds this morning which should
slowly lift in the next few hours. Besides that we are seeing
slightly higher PW this morning at around 1.5, however that is
still hovering around the 25 percentile when looking at
climatology for the date. This means we could see some isolated
showers across the interior but most will stay dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Relatively little change from previous forecast expectations this
morning, as the E U.S. remains under a blocking pattern aloft
featuring high pressure over the NE U.S. and low pressure over the
SE U.S., with westerly flow aloft overspreading the local area. At
the surface, a weak stationary frontal boundary extends across
the central to southern half of the peninsula from a developing
area of low pressure off the Carolinas coast, while ridging wedges
its way south into the peninsula behind it. While a plume of drier
mid-level air remains over the area, sufficient low-level
moisture remains in place to continue the recent trend of overnight
through mid-late morning stratus and patchy fog for this morning.
Daytime heating will lift/burn off the low clouds by late morning,
however high cloudiness is likely to continue streaming east across
the area through the day leading to mostly cloudy skies. While the
drier air aloft is expected to continue gradually moistening
through the day, it is still likely to limit overall convective
development, however northern and central areas have the greatest
chance of showers and a few storms this afternoon as the sea
breeze moves inland. That being said, only isolated to scattered
activity is expected, with PoPs around 30-40 percent for those
areas. Afternoon highs will range from the mid-upper 80s to lower
90s, with heat indices up to around 105 degrees.

Conditions locally look to remain fairly similar through mid
week with gradually increasing PoPs as moisture returns across the
area, before changes to the synoptic pattern over the E U.S.
during the mid-late week period allow a frontal boundary to drop
south across most of the peninsula late in the week, accompanied
by another push of slightly drier air into the area. PoPs and dew
points look to decrease slightly as a result, before guidance
suggests E-NE flow sets up over the state during the weekend
between surface ridging extending southward into the SE U.S. and
the lingering frontal boundary near the peninsula over the W
Atlantic, favoring at least a slight increase in moisture and
rain chances. Temps look to remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s
with heat indices in the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 804 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

IFR CIGS once again across most of our TAF sites this morning
except the ones in Southwest Florida. Expect these lower CIGS to
last for the next few hours before lifting. PW`s are still on the
lower end resulting in lower shower chances. This will keep VCTS
and TSRA out of TAFs for this afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A weak frontal boundary remains stationary across the region with
winds generally offshore during the morning hours, then shifting
onshore as the sea breeze develops during the afternoon for the
next couple of days. A weak surface pressure gradient will keep
wind speeds generally 10 knots or less with seas remaining less
than 2 feet, while scattered showers and storms can be expected
each day along sea breeze circulations and in the vicinity of the
frontal boundary, with locally hazardous winds and seas possible
at times in the vicinity of storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A weak frontal boundary remains draped across the area with the
associated trailing drier air resulting in lower rain chances,
however a few showers and storms will remain possible in interior
areas. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain well
above critical levels and given wet soil conditions from recent
rainfall, fire danger is expected to remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  90  76 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  78  91  76 /  20  20  40  30
GIF  92  75  93  75 /  40  20  30  20
SRQ  90  77  91  75 /  20  20  20  20
BKV  90  72  91  72 /  40  10  20  10
SPG  90  79  91  80 /  20  10  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close