494
FXUS62 KTBW 141842
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
242 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Some tropical moisture still lingers over south florida, from the
low pressure surface that has  moved off into the Atlantic. This
will keep most of the shower activity south of I4 once again.
However some sea breeze convergence could happen close to sunset
aiding the development of some showers and storms over the interior.
These should progress towards the west coast through the evening
hours. Tomorrow a very similar set up is likely, with isolated
showers possible down south, becoming more widespread in the
afternoon. Showers and storms should help moderate temperatures
throughout the week, keeping the highs a little closer to normal for
this time of year. Isolated heat indices into the triple digits
possible throughout the week as well.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Showers and storms possible this evening that could impact most
sties, likely beginning around 20Z down south and closer to 00Z
further north. Periods of MVFR ceilings possible throughout the day
tomorrow as well as isolated showers and storms mainly down south.
Winds become light and variable overnight before shifting more
onshore in he afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

This evening onshore winds will diminish and become light and
variable overnight before increasing tomorrow afternoon as the sea
breeze develops once again. Winds become more easterly moving into
Sunday and by Monday increase to around 10-15kts sustained. Tuesday
winds could get close to cautionary levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Ample moisture and soil saturation has helped decrease any fire
weather concerns through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  89  78  92 /  50  70  30  60
FMY  77  87  76  91 /  50  60  30  50
GIF  76  90  75  92 /  40  70  20  50
SRQ  77  89  76  92 /  60  70  40  60
BKV  72  93  72  94 /  40  60  30  50
SPG  81  89  81  92 /  60  70  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Lee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard