077
FXUS62 KTBW 231815
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
215 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Quiet conditions today and tomorrow as a weak surface high hangs
over the SE and Gulf Coast area. Drier air aloft is limiting shower
and storm development today, with the exception being a few isolated
showers that could pop up mainly along SWFL. Moisture continues to
increase into the week. Main weather story of the week will be the
development of potential tropical cyclone 9. National Hurricane
Center is expecting this disturbance to strengthen quickly once
it reaches the Gulf of Mexico and could potentially be a major
hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
Impacts all along the west coast of Florida will be likely. The
exact location and magnitude of these impacts is still uncertain.
However, we encourage everyone to continue to monitor the latest
updates from the NHC and local NWS offices and make sure you have
a hurricane plan in place while there is time to prepare.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions prevail with a ENE flow becoming more SE tomorrow.
There is a chance some isolated showers/storms develop around SWFL
this afternoon however confidence was low that any would directly
impact terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Quiet marine conditions for the remainder of today into tomorrow.
However conditions are expected to deteriorate quickly by
WEdnesday as the tropical system moves closer to our outer waters.
Dangerous marine conditions are expected in the Gulf all along
the West Coast of Florida, by Wednesday night and could continue
into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Though a bit drier today and tomorrow, RH values will remain above
critical levels. Moisture continues to increase through the week as
a tropical system moves toward the NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  93  77  90 /   0  10  10  70
FMY  77  94  78  89 /  20  30  30  90
GIF  75  94  77  91 /   0  10  10  60
SRQ  75  94  77  91 /  10  20  20  80
BKV  70  94  74  91 /   0  10   0  60
SPG  80  94  81  91 /  10  20  20  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn