306
FXUS62 KTBW 231841
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
241 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Seabreeze thunderstorms will continue through the rest of the
afternoon and evening hours. Just like yesterday we have no real
upper level steering flow. This means most of the storms will be
driven by outflow boundaries with our main hazard being localized
flooding.

As we go through early next week we will see the flow turn more
south to southeast. This will put us in seabreeze regime 6 which
favors the west coast of Florida for showers and storms in the
afternoon and evening. This will be the best two days to see showers
and storms for the coastal areas this work week.

By Wednesday ridging shifts south switching us to a more southwest
flow. This is flow regime we were stuck in for much of last summer
with convection starting inland and moving to the east coast of
Florida which typically keeps coastal areas dry. Currently models
are keeping us in the SW flow through next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Another day with light winds and VFR conditions outside of
thunderstorms. Speaking of thunderstorms we will once again see
chances of thudnerstorms at the terminals during the afternoon and
evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Winds will mainly be out of the south through our Monday
and generally staying below 10 knots. Best chance of showers and
storms for the early part of teh week will be in the late evening as
storms push off the coast and in the early morning hours along the
land breeze. By Tuesday winds shift more westerly for the rest of
the week. This will bring the best chance of showers and storms to
be in the late overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through
the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  79  92 /  50  70  40  70
FMY  74  91  76  91 /  50  70  40  70
GIF  75  95  76  94 /  60  70  30  70
SRQ  75  91  77  91 /  60  70  50  70
BKV  74  93  74  93 /  40  70  30  70
SPG  79  91  82  92 /  50  70  50  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana