Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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456 FXUS62 KTBW 270545 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 145 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Major Hurricane Helene has now made landfall in the Florida Big Bend region with life-threatening to catastrophic impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flooding rain, and tornadoes. * Storm Surge - Life threatening storm surge is occurring. Potential peak surge amounts are 10 to 15 feet from Chassahowitzka to Suwannee River, 8 to 12 feet from Anclote River to Chassahowitzka, 5 to 8 feet from Middle of Longboat Key to Anclote River, 4 to 7 feet from Englewood to Middle of Longboat Key, and 3 to 5 feet from Bonita Beach to Englewood. Elevated water levels will remain possible through Friday. * Flooding Rain - Flooding rain threat will continue through this weekend with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches and locally higher amounts up to 10 inches. Even after Helene pulls away, additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected this weekend. * Wind - Hurricane and tropical storm force winds are occurring and will continue tonight with the highest probabilities along the coast. * Tornadoes - A tornado watch is in effect from Tampa Bay northward. Isolated tornadoes remain possible. Over the course of the day, conditions will gradually improve. However, this process will not be instantaneous. An onshore wind is likely to prolong elevated water levels in particular, and will continue to play a role in weather conditions in the days to come. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 As Helene continues to pull away and a weak boundary sinks south in its wake, some drying is expected to take place across the Nature Coast down through Tampa Bay. However, this will be short-lived as the WSW flow pulls more moisture back into the region by tomorrow. More typical shower and thunderstorm activity is expected in response over the weekend, with heavy rainfall remaining a possibility. Given the WSW flow, coastal areas will be favored in the early morning through midday, with inland areas seeing the bulk of the convection in the afternoon. This pattern looks to be pretty persistent through the first half of the week. Eventually, some drier air should sneak back in from the north (assuming the boundary sinks a little farther south). However, it probably won`t be enough to completely negate shower and storm activity, and it certainly won`t have much of an effect on temperatures. More of an ESE flow looks to return near the end of the week, which will help bring moisture back into the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 MVFR conditions will continue early this morning as bands of showers continue to move across the region. Conditions will begin to improve Friday morning as Helene moves further north away from the area, but scattered convection will continue to be possible at the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW. Gusty southwest winds at 15 to 25 knots will decrease to around 15 knots Friday morning. Wind gusts will remain between 30 and 40 knots for the rest of tonight, especially in the bands of showers, then diminish to around 30 knots for the rest of Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Life-threatening winds and seas continue as Hurricane Helene moves inland across the Big Bend Region. As winds begin to subside today, winds and seas will gradually decline today. However, a persistent southwest flow may keep winds and seas elevated through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 79 88 78 / 10 10 50 40 FMY 90 80 90 79 / 50 60 80 40 GIF 92 77 91 77 / 20 20 70 30 SRQ 90 79 89 78 / 20 30 60 50 BKV 89 74 90 74 / 10 10 40 30 SPG 90 82 89 81 / 10 20 50 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota- DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Hurricane Watch for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco- Pinellas. Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM. Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Flannery/Close