Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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955 FXUS62 KTBW 140527 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 127 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A shortwave trough axis continues to propagate westward as tropical moisture is pulled northward across the FL peninsula. This is in contrast to drier air being pulled southward over the N FL peninsula. Heavy rainfall continues across SWFL in response as isolated to scattered diurnal convection starts to develop over Central and N Florida. The expectation is for heavy rainfall over SWFL to wind down for at least a period here in the next hour or two. The atmosphere will then need some time to recover before additional rainfall redevelops again overnight and into tomorrow. Another round of heavy rainfall is possible over a more confined section of SWFL. Considering how much rain has already fallen in this same area, this necessitated the extension of the Flood Watch through tomorrow in Charlotte and Lee Counties. However, lower totals, sunshine, and opportunities for water to drain have been ample across Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, and DeSoto counties. Thus, the current Flood Watch through this evening looks to be good at this time. Trends will be monitored over the next few hours. Over the next couple days, a transition will take place as the trough axis is replaced by an upper-level ridge. As this happens, winds will shift from a WSW to eventually an ESE pattern, with more typical diurnal convection settling in for at least a few days. Some drier air could even make this convection more isolated in nature, at least initially. Overall, though, more typical summertime conditions return and last into next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Showers are beginning to develop across central terminals, primarily PGD and SRQ. This trend will continue with a further development of showers and the return of high IFR to low MVFR ceilings across all terminals through the early morning hours. After the mid morning, daytime heating combined with ample moisture should allow thunderstorms to begin developing, especially across SWFL. Convection is anticipated to be on and off through the afternoon and early evening hours. However, some guidance tries to keep it over southern terminals into the night. Vicinity showers were kept into the late night hours in line with this guidance and forecaster thinking. MVFR/IFR conditions along with erratic and gusty winds are possible near storms. South to southwest winds prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 91 80 / 50 50 60 30 FMY 88 76 89 77 / 80 70 70 40 GIF 93 76 93 76 / 80 40 70 30 SRQ 91 77 90 78 / 50 60 60 40 BKV 95 72 95 73 / 50 40 60 30 SPG 91 81 91 82 / 40 50 60 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...LCH/Calhoun