435
FXUS62 KTBW 230545
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
145 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Thunderstorms are the primary aviation hazard. The expectation is
for convective development to begin along sea breeze boundaries,
becoming more scattered to numerous as the east coast sea breeze
makes its way to the west coast and eventually collides with the
west coast sea breeze. With these complex boundary interactions,
most TAF sites have a 5 to 7 hour window where thunderstorms could
be in the vicinity of airports. During these windows, there is
likely to be a 1 to 2 hour window when thunderstorms may be directly
over the field. However, that timing is too uncertain to try and
include a TEMPO. Nevertheless, a brief period of gusty winds and
potentially IFR conditions are possible in these time-frames. With
the rainy season getting well underway, thunderstorms will continue
to be the main hazard each day, shifting perhaps a little earlier in
the day as a WSW flow takes hold during the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  78  91  79 /  70  50  70  30
FMY  91  75  91  77 /  70  40  70  40
GIF  93  75  93  76 /  70  40  70  30
SRQ  91  75  91  77 /  70  60  70  40
BKV  91  73  92  75 /  70  40  70  30
SPG  91  80  91  82 /  70  60  70  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery