804
FXUS62 KTBW 150736
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
336 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
W/V imagery shows plume of deep tropical moisture remains over the
southern half of the forecast area...with TBW 15/00Z sounding
PCPW at 2 inches. Southerly boundary layer flow will increase
today which will advect abundant L/L moisture north from the
southeast Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers may develop over the
central/southern coastal waters over the next couple of hours
advecting locally onshore early this morning.  Daytime heating
will increase convective instability and allow scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon in
conditionally unstable atmosphere, with highest pops over
southwest Florida. The deep tropical moisture over the area will
continue the risk for heavy rain with thunderstorms which may
cause localized street and urban flooding.

Pattern change starts to take place on Sunday as high pressure
surface and aloft begins to build north of the region. This will
shift boundary layer winds gradually to the east and northeast.
Transition days can be difficult with regards to sensible
weather/pops, but deep tropical moisture will remain over the
region. Pops will trend slightly lower with best chance for
afternoon thunderstorms likely over the coastal counties along the
west coast sea breeze boundary.

Easterly boundary layer flow pattern will be securely in-place on
Monday. This will pin the west coast sea breeze boundary along the
coastal counties of west central/southwest Florida. Deep layer
moisture will remain over the region which will support scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms with highest pops near the
coast. This overall pattern will also allow max temps on Monday to
climb into the lower to mid 90s.

On Tuesday, the U/L ridge axis will shift west of the Florida
peninsula. This will create northeast mid level winds which will
advect dry air aloft across much of the forecast area. This will
act to suppress areal coverage of convection. The easterly
boundary layer flow will persist which should continue to support
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the west coast
sea breeze boundary, mainly from the Tampa Bay area and south.

Low confidence in the extended portion of the forecast period as
an inverted mid level trough is expected to push across the
Florida peninsula. This would allow deep tropical moisture to
advect back over the region as the mid level flow would shift to
the southeast. This would allow numerous showers and thunderstorms
to develop both Thursday and Friday with locally heavy rain
possible...with highest pops south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
LCL MVFR CIGs may develop over the next couple of hours and may
briefly impact terminals, however VFR conditions are expected to
prevail. Also, a few showers with MVFR CIGs/VSBYs may advect off
the Gulf this morning impacting all terminals with exception of
LAL. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
across the region this afternoon creating MVFR CIGs and IFR
VSBYs. May impact all terminals for a few hours, with the best
chance at PGD/FMY/RSW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
Main hazard through the weekend will be isolated to scattered
thunderstorms which may create locally gusty winds and rough seas.
Next week, winds will shift to the east/northeast and will create
the potential for a few hours of SCEC conditions during the
evening hours as easterly surge of wind develops around
sunset...weakening around midnight each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as
minimum afternoon relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  77  91  77 /  60  30  50  20
FMY  86  76  90  76 /  70  30  50  20
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  60  20  40  20
SRQ  88  77  92  75 /  60  30  50  20
BKV  91  72  93  71 /  60  30  50  20
SPG  88  80  92  79 /  60  30  50  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming