191
FXUS62 KTBW 211203
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
803 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

In the upper levels, a broad trough axis extending from the
western Atlantic into Florida today will slowly push east through
the weekend as a strong ridge over Texas slides east into the
Gulf of Mexico and across Florida by early next week. At the
surface, high pressure to the north of Florida will keep light and
generally easterly and northeasterly flow in place across the
forecast area this weekend and into early next week. A fairly dry
airmass will limit rain chances, although enough moisture is
present for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop
each afternoon and push west across the Florida Peninsula during
the afternoon and into the Gulf during the evening, with the
highest rain chances over the southern half of the forecast area.

The forecast becomes more uncertain during the second half of next
week, as a surface area of low pressure is forecast to form over the
southern Gulf of Mexico by mid week, then continue to develop and
move north through Gulf through the end of the week. While there is
high confidence that something is going to develop, there is much
lower confidence in forecasting the strength and exact track of this
system, which means there is a large range of possible outcomes for
the weather in west central and southwest Florida. At a minimum,
atmospheric moisture is forecast to rebound during the second half
of the week, which will allow for rain chances to increase each
day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 802 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions through the period with winds mainly out of the
east and northeast. Isolated showers will be possible in the
afternoon and evening but chances are to low to mention in TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High pressure and drier air will hold over the area through the
weekend and the early next week, with generally easterly flow
remaining less than 15 knots through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered
storms will be possible each day, creating locally higher winds and
hazardous boating conditions. Winds will begin to increase on
Wednesday as an area of low pressure develops in the southern Gulf
of Mexico.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

No humidity concerns. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
be possible each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  75  92  75 /  20  10  20  10
FMY  92  75  93  76 /  30  20  20  10
GIF  92  73  93  75 /  20  10  30   0
SRQ  91  74  93  75 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  70  93  71 /  10   0  20   0
SPG  90  78  92  79 /  20  10  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn