Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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648 FXUS62 KTBW 161207 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 807 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Relatively little change from previous forecast expectations this morning, as the E U.S. remains under a blocking pattern aloft featuring high pressure over the NE U.S. and low pressure over the SE U.S., with westerly flow aloft overspreading the local area. At the surface, a weak stationary frontal boundary extends across the central to southern half of the peninsula from a developing area of low pressure off the Carolinas coast, while ridging wedges its way south into the peninsula behind it. While a plume of drier mid-level air remains over the area, sufficient low-level moisture remains in place to continue the recent trend of overnight through mid-late morning stratus and patchy fog for this morning. Daytime heating will lift/burn off the low clouds by late morning, however high cloudiness is likely to continue streaming east across the area through the day leading to mostly cloudy skies. While the drier air aloft is expected to continue gradually moistening through the day, it is still likely to limit overall convective development, however northern and central areas have the greatest chance of showers and a few storms this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. That being said, only isolated to scattered activity is expected, with PoPs around 30-40 percent for those areas. Afternoon highs will range from the mid-upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices up to around 105 degrees. Conditions locally look to remain fairly similar through mid week with gradually increasing PoPs as moisture returns across the area, before changes to the synoptic pattern over the E U.S. during the mid-late week period allow a frontal boundary to drop south across most of the peninsula late in the week, accompanied by another push of slightly drier air into the area. PoPs and dew points look to decrease slightly as a result, before guidance suggests E-NE flow sets up over the state during the weekend between surface ridging extending southward into the SE U.S. and the lingering frontal boundary near the peninsula over the W Atlantic, favoring at least a slight increase in moisture and rain chances. Temps look to remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the triple digits. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 804 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 IFR CIGS once again across most of our TAF sites this morning except the ones in Southwest Florida. Expect these lower CIGS to last for the next few hours before lifting. PW`s are still on the lower end resulting in lower shower chances. This will keep VCTS and TSRA out of TAFs for this afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A weak frontal boundary remains stationary across the region with winds generally offshore during the morning hours, then shifting onshore as the sea breeze develops during the afternoon for the next couple of days. A weak surface pressure gradient will keep wind speeds generally 10 knots or less with seas remaining less than 2 feet, while scattered showers and storms can be expected each day along sea breeze circulations and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, with locally hazardous winds and seas possible at times in the vicinity of storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A weak frontal boundary remains draped across the area with the associated trailing drier air resulting in lower rain chances, however a few showers and storms will remain possible in interior areas. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain well above critical levels and given wet soil conditions from recent rainfall, fire danger is expected to remain low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 90 76 / 30 10 20 10 FMY 92 78 91 76 / 20 20 40 30 GIF 92 75 93 75 / 40 20 30 20 SRQ 90 77 91 75 / 20 20 20 20 BKV 90 72 91 72 / 40 10 20 10 SPG 90 79 91 80 / 20 10 20 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close