Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
012 FXUS62 KTBW 170724 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Strong surface high pressure centered off the Atlantic seaboard is ridging southwest into the southeastern US, setting up an easterly flow regime over the forecast area that will hold through the week and into the weekend. Drier air is filling in aloft from the northeast today, which will limit rain chances for much of the area, with the exception of southwest Florida which could see higher rain chances as moisture streams west into the Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday and Wednesday, a couple plumes of moisture will shift west into Florida from the Atlantic, allowing rain chances to begin to creep back upwards. Thursday into Friday, global models are continuing to show an area of low pressure developing and shifting west somewhere into the east coast just north of Florida late Thursday night or Friday. There is still a fair amount of model uncertainty with this system with the track, strength of the low, and timing...but there is a decent amount of agreement on increasing moisture and rain chances Thursday through the weekend under continued easterly flow. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, although some MVFR ceilings will be possible around sunrise this morning, mainly over southwest Florida around KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW. A few showers or storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours, but chances are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 High pressure holding north of Florida will keep generally easterly winds in place over the coastal waters through the week. Wind speeds will increase today and Tuesday in response to a tightening pressure gradient between this high pressure and a developing area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico, with Small Craft Exercise Caution winds expected at times today. Wind speeds will increase to Small Craft Advisory levels tonight through Tuesday morning, and hold near or above advisory levels through the rest of the week. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in the vicinity of daily thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday and Friday as a tropical wave pushes west into Florida from the Atlantic. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 No humidity concerns. High dispersion indices are expected each afternoon through the first half of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 76 93 77 / 10 0 20 20 FMY 92 76 94 77 / 20 10 30 20 GIF 91 74 91 75 / 10 10 30 20 SRQ 94 75 95 77 / 10 0 30 20 BKV 93 71 94 73 / 10 0 20 10 SPG 93 80 94 80 / 10 0 30 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 3 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Fleming