919
FXUS62 KTBW 160015
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
815 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will wind down over the
next few hours, but an isolated shower or storm could still move
onshore late tonight along northern parts of the Nature Coast.
Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected overnight.
Overall forecast looks ok at this time with no changes needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 815 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Convection will end in the next few hours with mainly VFR
conditions expected through Sunday morning before more scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop Sunday afternoon. Winds will
become light east to southeast tonight into early Sunday morning
then increase to 7 to 10 knots by late morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Weak high pressure will remain across the region into early Sunday
then a stronger high will build southwest across the Florida
peninsula setting up a tight pressure gradient with breezy
easterly flow becoming established for much of the upcoming week.

Sunday will be the transition day as the stronger high begins to
build in with southeast to south flow persisting along with plenty
of moisture. With this flow we could see an isolated shower or
storm move onshore along the northern Nature Coast late
tonight/Sunday morning, otherwise expect scattered to numerous
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to develop across
the region.

During Monday and continuing through midweek a breezy easterly
flow will become established with some pockets of drier air moving
through from time to time. However, the exact location and timing
of these drier air pockets is difficult to determine. Not matter
what though it looks like rain chances will be a little lower for
the first half of the week, but still in the scattered, 30 to 50
percent, range.

Late in the week the global models are depicting a tropical
wave/low moving quickly west from the Atlantic Ocean across some
part of the Florida peninsula/southeast states. Similar to the
timing and location of the drier air early in the week, the
specifics of this system are unknown at this time, but either way
we should have plenty of moisture to still see scattered to
numerous convection each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Winds will shift to easterly Sunday and increase during next week
as high pressure builds south setting up a rather tight pressure
gradient across the waters. Winds will increase to exercise
caution to advisory levels at times by late Monday and remain
there through the rest of the week. Main hazard throughout the
forecast period will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms which
may cause locally gusty winds and rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Pretty typical summertime weather will persist with warm and humid
conditions each day leading to scattered to numerous mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the
northeast early next week setting up a rather tight pressure leading
to an increased easterly flow with the afternoon sea breeze not
developing or at best being pinned along the coast. The breezy
conditions will lead to high dispersion values for much of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  77  93 /  30  70  30  40
FMY  76  92  76  92 /  20  60  20  50
GIF  75  94  75  92 /  30  60  10  30
SRQ  76  92  75  94 /  30  60  30  40
BKV  72  94  72  94 /  30  70  20  30
SPG  81  92  80  94 /  30  60  30  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana