595
FXUS62 KTBW 141118
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
718 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Other than a few showers currently offshore radar is currently
quite across the inland areas. CAMs still indicate showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop inland late morning into the
afternoon. However it should be noted that the HRRR is the driest
of the guidance with initiation later in the day. The heaviest
rainfall is still forecast Charlotte and Lee Counties and will
keep current Flood Watch going.

Over the next couple days, a transition will take place as the
trough axis is replaced by an upper-level ridge. As this happens,
winds will shift from a WSW to eventually an ESE pattern, with more
typical diurnal convection settling in for at least a few days. Some
drier air could even make this convection more isolated in nature,
at least initially. Overall, though, more typical summertime
conditions return and last into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A few showers and isolated thunder near the coast south of KSRQ
this morning will gradually spread inland during the day. The best
chances for TSRA across the southern terminals with activity
expected to continue well into the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  90  79 /  60  60  60  30
FMY  89  77  88  76 /  70  70  70  30
GIF  94  75  92  76 /  60  50  70  30
SRQ  93  78  90  77 /  50  60  60  30
BKV  95  72  94  73 /  50  50  60  40
SPG  93  81  90  81 /  50  60  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Lee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...LCH