637
FXUS62 KTBW 270825
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
425 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

High pressure is ridging across the FL Straits with a trough to
the north of the state, keeping a more moderate SW flow in place
across the area for today and Friday. A few showers are in place
already across the northern coastal waters this morning, and the
pattern of morning coastal convection shifting inland through the
afternoon and early evening will continue. Highs in the lower to
mid 90s will continue with lows in the mid to upper 70s, with some
around 80s along the coast. The ridge axis starts to lift north
over the weekend as the trough to the north gradually washes out,
then meanders across the area for next week. This will keep light
winds with the diurnal sea breeze dominating the flow each day.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each
day. Highs remain in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the mid to
upper 70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A little stronger WSW flow expected today. Scattered
showers/storms will be possible near the coast in the pre-sunrise
hours and have VCTS beginning at 10Z at most coastal Terminals.
Convection gradually shifts inland through the afternoon, with
coastal sites clearing around 19Z north and 23Z south, and for LAL
being generally 15-00Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail,
but MVFR to IFR conditions possible in storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

High pressure ridge axis remains south of the state through the
end of the week, then starts to gradually lift north to across the
area through the weekend and into next week. This will shift winds
from the SW to more of a light S/SE flow with the sea breezing
dominating each day. This will also adjust the timing of storms,
with overnight and morning activity through the end of the week,
then transition to more of an evening timing as storms push
offshore. No headlines are expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day with humidity values remaining well above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  80  91  80 /  50  40  60  30
FMY  91  78  93  78 /  40  20  60  20
GIF  93  76  94  76 /  60  30  70  20
SRQ  91  79  92  78 /  50  30  50  30
BKV  91  75  93  75 /  50  50  70  20
SPG  89  81  90  81 /  50  40  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby