364
FXUS62 KTBW 262330
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
730 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

No changes planned for the evening update. High pressure ridging
to the south maintains W-SW flow over the area favoring continued
warm and humid conditions featuring morning coastal showers and
storms migrating inland where highest rain chances will exist
during the afternoon before gradually diminishing through the
evening. Highs remain mainly in the lower to mid 90s, with lows in
the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Florida remains situated between upper ridging south and west of
Florida, while upper troughing persists north of the area. On the
surface, high pressure ridges south of Florida and into the central
Gulf of Mexico. This is producing a predominant light onshore
westerly flow over the region. This pattern will continue through
the end of the week. Slow moving showers and storms continue to fire
up over southwest Florida and traverse eastward through the
afternoon and evening hours. Some of these slow moving showers and
storms could produce some localized flooding in heavy downpours.

By Saturday morning, the Atlantic ridge will shift slightly
northward, while weak high pressure remains in the central Gulf of
Mexico. This will bring some south-southeast winds over the east
coast, but light onshore winds will also be possible over the west
coast and eastern gulf waters. Abundant moisture with PWAT values
between 1.7 - 2.1 inches will persist through the forecast period.
Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible each day
through the period. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid
90`s with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees. Overnight lows will
remain in the 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

W-SW flow through the period will favor continued primary morning
into early afternoon threat of showers and storms across coastal
terminals, lingering a bit longer into the afternoon inland at
LAL. VFR expected outside of convection with winds generally 5-10
knots through the period, highest during the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

High pressure to our south will maintain a westerly onshore flow
heading into the weekend. Over the weekend, wind directions may
become more variable as the high pressure system begins to move
north and shift us towards a slightly offshore flow. This should be
relatively brief, though, as the onshore flow is set to resume early
next week. Winds will be light, not exceeding 10 knots. Wave heights
will be no more than 2 feet throughout the period. As usual, some
scattered showers and storms can be expected daily through the next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Pretty typical summertime pattern continues over the area with
abundant moisture, warm temperatures and light winds. Scattered
showers and isolated storms expected each day through the end of the
week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  81  90  80 /  70  30  40  20
FMY  90  79  91  78 /  70  20  20  10
GIF  92  75  92  75 /  30  10  30  10
SRQ  91  79  91  79 /  50  30  30  20
BKV  92  75  91  75 /  60  20  30  20
SPG  91  83  91  83 /  70  30  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...RDavis