400
FXUS62 KTBW 011123
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
723 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Some lingering MVFR to LIFR conditions are impacting the central
interior this morning. However, with the sun now rising, this should
quickly lift and gradually mix out over the next few hours. Once
this occurs, the main concern remaining through the day is for
thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening. With a very light
background ESE flow today, sea breeze circulations will again be the
driving force behind convective development this afternoon. However,
the atmosphere does look a little drier today, suggesting less
coverage and generally shorter windows for impacts at terminals. It
also makes on-station impacts less certain. SWFL has the longest
windows, with slightly higher moisture to support more storms in
place once again today. Moisture content increases again tomorrow
and through the remainder of the week, with a higher potential for
impacts at terminals each day.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Currently at the surface, the sub-tropical ridge of high pressure
centered over the Atlantic is extending across central Florida,
keeping light and generally southerly/southeasterly flow in place
across the forecast area. This pattern will hold through Tuesday,
favoring showers and a few storms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
during the early morning hours, perhaps shifting into the coast
at times. Land based storms will then start to develop by early
afternoon along the west coast sea breeze near the coast, then
numerous storms will continue to shift inland through the
afternoon and early evening hours as the sea breeze pushes inland.

Wednesday and Thursday, ridging aloft will shift east into the
southeastern US, providing some broad subsidence while the surface
ridge redevelops north and sets up more of an easterly flow pattern.
While the subsidence may limit rain chances slightly, the easterly
flow will favor afternoon and early evening storms building towards
the west coast with the east coast sea breeze. Temperatures should
also creep up slightly during the second half of the week as a
result of the subsidence. Friday through the weekend, the surface
ridge is forecast to slide back south across southern Florida,
returning to a light southerly flow pattern.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A ridge of high pressure sitting over the coastal waters will keep
light south and southeast flow in place today and Tuesday, turning
onshore near the coast each afternoon with the seabreeze. The ridge
lifts north on Wednesday, favoring more southeast to easterly flow
for the rest of the week. Winds and seas will generally remain well
below headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce
locally hazardous boating conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

No humidity concerns. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop each day this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  79  93  78 /  60  20  50  40
FMY  91  77  92  78 /  60  30  70  30
GIF  94  77  95  77 /  60  40  60  20
SRQ  90  77  92  78 /  40  20  50  30
BKV  92  74  94  75 /  60  20  50  30
SPG  91  82  92  82 /  50  20  40  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Fleming