832
FXXX10 KWNP 281231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 28-Jun 30 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 28-Jun 30 2024

             Jun 28       Jun 29       Jun 30
00-03UT       4.33         4.67 (G1)    3.33
03-06UT       4.33         4.00         2.67
06-09UT       3.67         2.67         2.33
09-12UT       6.00 (G2)    2.67         1.67
12-15UT       5.00 (G1)    2.00         1.33
15-18UT       3.67         2.00         1.00
18-21UT       3.33         1.67         1.33
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         1.67

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are expected
on 28 Jun with G1 storming likely to continue early on 29 Jun due to CME
effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 28-Jun 30 2024

              Jun 28  Jun 29  Jun 30
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 28-Jun 30 2024

              Jun 28        Jun 29        Jun 30
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 28-30 Jun.