Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
580 FXXX10 KWNP 250031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Sep 25 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 25-Sep 27 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 25-Sep 27 2024 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27 00-03UT 3.67 4.00 1.67 03-06UT 2.33 3.33 1.33 06-09UT 2.00 2.67 1.67 09-12UT 4.00 2.33 1.33 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 1.33 15-18UT 3.33 1.33 1.67 18-21UT 3.33 1.33 1.33 21-00UT 3.67 3.00 1.33 Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 25 Sep due to a glancing blow CME along with High Speed Stream influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 25-Sep 27 2024 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 25-Sep 27 2024 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 20% 20% 20% Rationale: M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares are likely and there is a slight chance for X-class (R3- Strong) flares on 25-27 Sep.