Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
594 FXXX10 KWNP 240031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 Jun 24 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 24-Jun 26 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 24-Jun 26 2024 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26 00-03UT 2.67 1.67 1.67 03-06UT 2.00 2.00 2.00 06-09UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 12-15UT 2.00 0.67 1.33 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 1.00 18-21UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 21-00UT 2.33 1.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 24-Jun 26 2024 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26 S1 or greater 15% 5% 1% Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 24-26 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 23 2024 1301 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 24-Jun 26 2024 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun 26 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are are likely over 24-26 Jun due to the flare potential from multiple active regions on the visible disk.