715
FXUS65 KTFX 260624
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1224 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.UPDATE...

An upper level trough continues to move onshore this evening with
its associated Pacific cold front currently pushing into far NW
MT. A few fast moving thunderstorms continue to track NE across
NW MT late this evening ahead of the front with the threat for
these and associated stronger wind gusts moving through the
Glacier NP vicinity ending by midnight. Risk for more widespread
strong wind gusts will increase after midnight along the Rocky
Mtn front and adjacent areas following the frontal passage. Gusty
post-frontal west winds and more seasonable temperatures will
spread east across the rest of north-central and southwest MT
Thursday morning with with most areas likely to see peak wind
intensity late Thursday morning. Hoenisch

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific front will move eastward across Montana tonight. A few
showers or thunderstorms will affect areas around Glacier Park and
Cut Bank this evening, otherwise dry conditions are expected until
at least Sunday night. Afternoon temperatures will not be as warm
tomorrow, but do return close to 80 degrees for Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
26/06Z TAF Period

VFR conditions are forecast to continue across North Central (KCTB,
KHVR), Central (KLWT, KGTF, KHLN), and Southwest (KBZN, KEKS, KWYS)
Montana through at least 27/06Z. However, precipitation along the
Continental Divide from the Canadian border south to northwest of
KHLN may obscure mountain tops there through around 15Z.

The main concern during this period will be the winds. A passing
Pacific cold front ahead of a shortwave trough will cause gusty
southerly winds to shift more westerly and increase through around
12Z or so from west to east. Most areas will see gusts in the 20 to
30 kt range with widespread mountain wave turbulence and areas of
low level wind shear. However, the strongest winds will be on the
Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains, where winds could be
sustained between 20 and 30 kt with gusts potentially in excess of
50 kt at times. Increased high- and mid-level cloudiness is also
expected during this time. Winds and clouds are forecast to decrease
from west to east after 20Z or so as the shortwave exits the area.
-Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024/
Tonight through Sunday...A Pacific cool front will move eastward
across the CWA tonight. Expect windy conditions to develop over
the northwestern portions of the CWA this evening, and then
continue into Thursday morning. Some probabilities for 60 mph
wind gusts have lowered to about 60 percent. Also, a few isolated
thunderstorms are possible in the Glacier Park/Browning/Cut Bank
areas, with an isolated strong wind gust possible. Thus the high
wind warning will continue. Afternoon temperatures will be
slightly cooler on Thursday, but then warm back up for
Fri/Sat...only to cool a few degrees on Sunday.

Sunday night through Wednesday...Expect a changeable weather
pattern starting Sunday night and then continuing into the middle
portions of next week. At this time, the changes in temperatures
will be most noticeable, as any precipitation that does fall
is expected to light at this time. Also, if any precipitation
does fall Sunday night, it will mostly be over the northern
portions of the CWA. Temperatures early next week do begin to vary
daily, with upper level trofs moving through. Even though
overnight lows will be near freezing at times, day times highs
will mostly be in the 60s/70s. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  53  72  49  81 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  51  64  46  74 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  54  76  48  82 /   0  10   0   0
BZN  49  78  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  38  71  33  73 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  48  75  42  79 /   0  10   0   0
HVR  54  71  45  83 /   0  10   0   0
LWT  51  71  45  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT Thursday for East Glacier Park
Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera-
Eastern Toole and Liberty-Northern High Plains-Southern High
Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls