Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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610 FXUS65 KTFX 260548 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1148 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...Aviation Section Update... .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry conditions through tonight before an approaching Pacific weather weather system brings scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday followed by general unsettled weather on Friday. Temperatures warm above average on Wednesday and then trend cooler during the second half of the week. && .Update... On-going forecast is performing well, so no adjustments were made outside of re-running diurnal trends to better match observations (although even these trends were doing quite well). Isolated showers and thunderstorms across extreme Southwest Montana, predominately along the Idaho and Wyoming borders, will gradually wane through evening hours and give way to clearing skies through the remainder of the night. Can`t rule out an elevated isolated shower or storm beyond the midnight hour given embedded waves within the moist, southwest flow aloft continuing to ripple northeast overnight, but all available CAMs do not support this happening so kept PoPs below 10%. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 26/06Z TAF Period Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages the following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN, KEKS and KWYS. During the early morning hours of this TAF period, LIFR conditions are included in our north central Montana TAFs to allow for the development of some early morning mist, with low ceiling. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through 26/20Z when thunderstorm activity begins to impact airfields. Thunderstorms develop across southwest Montana and move north north eastward across the region. After thunderstorms exit our forecast area, rain showers continue through the end of this TAF period. - Fogleman Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024/ Upper level ridging remains in place through tonight, yielding generally dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. The latest satellite imagery does show some scattered clouds, most notably over far Southwest MT and Hill and Blaine counties farther north. Surface CAPE values have risen to around 100 to 200 J/kg and an isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out, particularly for the higher terrain along the MT/ID/WY border. Any convective activity will end this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Aside from some patchy fog development along the Milk River Valley heading toward Wednesday morning, a relatively night is expected. Diffluent southwesterly flow aloft develops ahead of an approaching Pacific trough on Wednesday, resulting in increased mid- and higher level cloudiness during the morning and scattered shower and thunderstorm development by the afternoon. Hi-res models have increased ML CAPE level up to around 400 - 800 J/kg for Wednesday afternoon for locations south of a Helena to White Sulphur Springs line. This combined with inverted V forecast soundings and bulk shear around 30 top 40 kts creates an environment for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some small hail in addition to lightning. At least isolated convective activity looks to persist into the overnight hours Wednesday night, through the next viable chance for stronger thunderstorms will come on Thursday over the eastern portions of the CWA. These areas will be on the western fringe of higher end instability and shear for at least a marginal threat of severe wind gusts, hail, and heavy downpours. Showery precipitation continues Thursday night into Friday, mostly for northern areas. There will also be sufficient cold air for a dusting of light, high mountain snow. Much cooler and windy conditions area expected on the back side of the Pacific low later Thursday into Friday. Winds initially increase along the Rocky Mountain Front Thursday night before spreading eastward onto the plains by Friday. Probabilistic guidance generally keeps wind gusts in the 30 to 50 mph range, but locations along the Rocky Mountain Front on the immediate lee side of the central ranges may see gusts over 55 mph. Shower activity will need to be monitored for being a catalyst of transferring higher wind guts to the surface. While no high wind products are planned at this time, the situation will continue to be monitored. Transient ridging aloft brings drier conditions for the first half of the weekend before unsettled weather return Sunday into early next week. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 87 57 72 / 0 10 40 80 CTB 46 81 54 68 / 0 10 30 50 HLN 55 88 61 73 / 0 30 50 70 BZN 51 84 56 77 / 0 30 30 70 WYS 45 77 48 71 / 20 30 30 40 DLN 50 82 53 75 / 0 30 20 40 HVR 50 84 58 72 / 0 0 40 80 LWT 48 82 55 72 / 0 0 40 90 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls