413
FNUS75 KTFX 201444
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Toehead Rx...Montana DNRC
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
844 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on June 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

With high pressure to the northeast, expect generally favorable
conditions for burning today. Main concern for today is that we
will have to watch for a very low (5-10%) chance of a shower or
thunderstorm in the area that could produce some gusty and erratic
winds for a brief period between 1400 and 1900 this afternoon.
After a quiet and calm overnight period, we will have a better
chance (60%) for some showers and thunderstorms around during the
day on Friday, some of which may contain gusty winds and hail.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....73-78.
Min humidity........18-23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....47-52.
Max humidity........75-80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds up to 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 10 mph.
Haines Index........

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................15 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....76-81.
Min humidity........31-36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds up to 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Ludwig
Requested by...Charlie Ewart
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416376.1/TFX
.DELDT 06/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL charlie.ewart@mt.gov, mthdc@firenet.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov