057
FXUS63 KTOP 251114
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances continue to diminish for the late week
  and weekend.

- Near normal temperatures into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Above normal mid/upper level height anomalies will remain in place
over the central and northern Rockies over the next several days as
Tuesday`s upper trough and the developing Gulf system linger over
the Deep South. This keeps a rather tranquil pattern in place with
little chance for precipitation and fairly steady temperatures.
Surface high pressure centered over western Kansas combined with
evening clearing and some areas of wet ground may give rise to some
shallow fog through sunrise this morning. Will monitor satellite
and observation trends for inclusion but the chance for an Advisory
is rather low (15%).

The track of the conglomeration of the upper lows to the southeast
continues to trend farther east in recent model runs and the chances
for precipitation in the NBM continue to fall in kind. The next
significant system of note appears to be a modified Pacific cold
front that passes in the Monday to Monday night timeframe which
brings temperatures down noticeably, though far from impacting
those with sensitive vegetation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Indications of ground fog have been intermittent overnight but
give enough evidence for inclusion at TOP and MHK early in this
forecast. VFR conditions will be the rule otherwise in and dry
lower and middle troposphere.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage