Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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213 FXUS63 KTOP 261025 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 525 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several rounds of thunderstorms possible through the weekend. There is the potential for severe weather with these storms. - Temperatures heat back up on Friday with heat indicies between 100 and 110 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Convection is moving out of the forecast area and the weather is forecast to be quieter for the rest of the day with mid level ridging to the west and no obvious wave immediately up stream. Surface ridging nosing into northeast KS is expected to give us a northerly winds and cooler temperatures in the middle 80s to around 90. By tonight and into the weekend, models show a quasi zonal pattern developing with ridging to the south and the mean westerlies across the northern states. This sets up the potential for perturbations to move across the central plains with a relatively hot and moist airmass in the boundary layer. The first of these looks to move into the plains late tonight with possibly another wave within the flow passing through Thursday night. The thunderstorm forecast and potential severity looks to be more of a meso scale exercise with convection having a significant influence on the resulting environment. Just for Thursday, the 06Z NAM is not as aggressive in the moisture recovery into northeast KS and as a result the forecast POPs have been lowered across eastern KS. So there is POPs in the forecast into the weekend but the predictability may be lower than normal and adjustments to this are likely. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Models have shown the potential for some stratocu to linger behind the convection, but OBs show no low clouds and satellite indicates clear skies as the anvil moves east. So will go with a more optimistic forecast and keep VFR conditions with a east and northeasterly wind. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Wolters